THE 1993 film Alive tells the true story of a group of Uruguayan rugby players stranded in the Andes after a plane crash. Every day at noon, the survivors turn on the radio to hear how the search for them is going. About 2 weeks after the crash, they hear that the search has been called of and they are presumed dead.
One of the men leaps to his feet and starts dancing around. His teammate says “Why are you so happy – didn’t you hear? They’ve called off the search.”
“Yes,” says the happy man. “Now we’re going to get out of here on our own.”
A week before the start of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Professor Hugh Montgomery, intensive care specialist, Director of the Centre for Human Health and Performance at the University College London, and long-time climate activist, believes humanity is now at the point where we have to “get out of here on our own”.
“COP has never delivered the answers before,” Professor Montgomery told InSight+ in an exclusive podcast. “And it won’t this time.”
“There will be a deal, but it won’t deliver anything significant at the speed and scale of risk required. Which then leaves you with a question? Well, who will lead it?”
In the lead-up to COP26, new data have been published, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report and the latest MJA–Lancet Countdown report. The picture is not pretty.
“We’re out of time now, completely,” says Professor Montgomery.
“Global warming is radiation gain. We’re probably gaining five Hiroshima bombs a second of energy at the moment. And the trouble is we’ve now gone through some positive feedback loops.
“The bushfires you had in Australia in 2019–2020 – those fires alone put in three-quarters of a billion metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere. All of that, again, causes more radiation gain. Carbonate rocks release methane, that causes global warming, melting tundra releases methane, more global warming.
“The Amazon basin is now a net emitter, because it’s so dry. When lightning strikes, it catches fire.
“We’re now in a situation where even if we stop emitting carbon dioxide, things continue to get worse, as the IPCC report says, probably for a millennia. It’s now running away. And we have to put the brakes on.” So, if it’s too late, why bother?
“It’s the only rational, logical thing to do, isn’t it?” says Professor Montgomery.
“If the boat’s going down, if you decide that you’re certain to die, you will be certain to die. The only logical approach is to fight for survival.
“And there is a chance – if the world moves aggressively and quickly together, right now, we can salvage some of this.
“But we haven’t got time for this talk about ‘net zero by 2050’. It is just nonsense.”
In the UK, Professor Montgomery says, health professionals have now embraced the concept of taking responsibility for the carbon footprint of the health system, and improving sustainability in their own circles.
“It was only 11 years ago that there was a first mention of climate change affecting human health,” he says.
“Now it is, I would say, universally accepted by health professionals in the UK. They are very, very much more engaged. The feeling, particularly the younger generations coming through, now is … I have a global health responsibility. I’m not just interested in chemotherapy or the antipsychotics. I’m interested in how I make the world a safe place, an equitable one for everyone to live in.”
If governments won’t take the risks of changing national economies to more sustainable models, how can we save the planet?
“You’ve got countries that are dependent or have built an economy on chopping down trees, mining for coal, digging out tar sands, drilling for oil,” says Professor Montomery.
“Look at Russia – its entire economy is dependent on gas and oil, the whole economy.
“Australia’s economy is heavily dependent on coal. I could see why a politician might say, if we stop all of that right now, that’s a juddering to a halt of the economy.
“But we have to do that now. We have to do that. Someone in Australia and these other countries is going to have to go think quickly. How do we reinvent our economy, because Australia will become uninhabitable in the next decades.”
Where is the hope if politicians aren’t brave enough to act?
“Certainly here in the UK, but in a lot of other places too, the people are saying enough, we are not standing for this anymore. We will change,” says Professor Montgomery.
“There are businesses that are genuinely moving, absolutely, to the core, committed to action on climate change. This is not window dressing. It’s not a bit of greenwash. There are some businesses who genuinely want to act.”
Like the Uruguayan plane crash survivors, it’s time to do it ourselves, he says.
“That’s the challenge for us, and that’s the opportunity.
“How often have people had the chance to save their biosphere? And their species? It’s a big ticket ask. But if we change the way we behave, the way we travel, the way we eat, the way we spend, make it clear to our politicians, the way we vote, then we can do it.
“When we’re talking to our politicians, try to think about their side of things. Don’t bring them problems, bring them solutions.
“Let’s invest in this way. Let’s grow a business that way. Let’s do the following things that will make the difference. Find the companies that are doing the right things and work with them.”
The health care sector in Britain is doing its part.
“We’re big spenders,” says Professor Montgomery.
“In Britain, it’s now being written into contracts. Every National Health Service contract above 5 million pounds has to have decarbonisation built into the contract. So as a supplier, you have to say, I’m X per cent down, which will eventually be zero.
“And that bar is going to move down from 5 million pounds, slowly down to every contract.
“Every contract will soon ask two questions:- does it work; and number two, is it zero carbon? No? Okay, then we can’t buy it from you.”
COVID-19 has had its effect on the climate change debate, says Professor Montgomery.
“COVID showed us we live now in the age of consequence. We were reminded that the actions we take, or don’t take, matter. They can matter lethally.
“We’re now at that situation with climate change. It’s no longer some existential threat down the pipe. It’s no longer something we have to think about for our grandchildren. This is about us in the coming few decades.
“This is us and if we have young children, it’s absolutely about them, too.
“We have a responsibility to act. In the health sector, we’re good communicators, we’ve got a massive budget and the health sector worldwide can join together to take action.
“If people are left wondering, what is it that I can do in my personal life, the answer is quite simple.
“Go online, find a good carbon calculator. It’ll take you half an hour to fill in, find out the bits of your life that are the high carbon things and just hit those quickly and easily to start with.
“You’ll feel really good about yourself. Then work out how you do the rest of it and bring people with you.”
One of the men leaps to his feet and starts dancing around. His teammate says “Why are you so happy – didn’t you hear? They’ve called off the search.”
“Yes,” says the happy man. “Now we’re going to get out of here on our own.”
A week before the start of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Professor Hugh Montgomery, intensive care specialist, Director of the Centre for Human Health and Performance at the University College London, and long-time climate activist, believes humanity is now at the point where we have to “get out of here on our own”.
“COP has never delivered the answers before,” Professor Montgomery told InSight+ in an exclusive podcast. “And it won’t this time.”
“There will be a deal, but it won’t deliver anything significant at the speed and scale of risk required. Which then leaves you with a question? Well, who will lead it?”
In the lead-up to COP26, new data have been published, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report and the latest MJA–Lancet Countdown report. The picture is not pretty.
“We’re out of time now, completely,” says Professor Montgomery.
“Global warming is radiation gain. We’re probably gaining five Hiroshima bombs a second of energy at the moment. And the trouble is we’ve now gone through some positive feedback loops.
“The bushfires you had in Australia in 2019–2020 – those fires alone put in three-quarters of a billion metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere. All of that, again, causes more radiation gain. Carbonate rocks release methane, that causes global warming, melting tundra releases methane, more global warming.
“The Amazon basin is now a net emitter, because it’s so dry. When lightning strikes, it catches fire.
“We’re now in a situation where even if we stop emitting carbon dioxide, things continue to get worse, as the IPCC report says, probably for a millennia. It’s now running away. And we have to put the brakes on.” So, if it’s too late, why bother?
“It’s the only rational, logical thing to do, isn’t it?” says Professor Montgomery.
“If the boat’s going down, if you decide that you’re certain to die, you will be certain to die. The only logical approach is to fight for survival.
“And there is a chance – if the world moves aggressively and quickly together, right now, we can salvage some of this.
“But we haven’t got time for this talk about ‘net zero by 2050’. It is just nonsense.”
In the UK, Professor Montgomery says, health professionals have now embraced the concept of taking responsibility for the carbon footprint of the health system, and improving sustainability in their own circles.
“It was only 11 years ago that there was a first mention of climate change affecting human health,” he says.
“Now it is, I would say, universally accepted by health professionals in the UK. They are very, very much more engaged. The feeling, particularly the younger generations coming through, now is … I have a global health responsibility. I’m not just interested in chemotherapy or the antipsychotics. I’m interested in how I make the world a safe place, an equitable one for everyone to live in.”
If governments won’t take the risks of changing national economies to more sustainable models, how can we save the planet?
“You’ve got countries that are dependent or have built an economy on chopping down trees, mining for coal, digging out tar sands, drilling for oil,” says Professor Montomery.
“Look at Russia – its entire economy is dependent on gas and oil, the whole economy.
“Australia’s economy is heavily dependent on coal. I could see why a politician might say, if we stop all of that right now, that’s a juddering to a halt of the economy.
“But we have to do that now. We have to do that. Someone in Australia and these other countries is going to have to go think quickly. How do we reinvent our economy, because Australia will become uninhabitable in the next decades.”
Where is the hope if politicians aren’t brave enough to act?
“Certainly here in the UK, but in a lot of other places too, the people are saying enough, we are not standing for this anymore. We will change,” says Professor Montgomery.
“There are businesses that are genuinely moving, absolutely, to the core, committed to action on climate change. This is not window dressing. It’s not a bit of greenwash. There are some businesses who genuinely want to act.”
Like the Uruguayan plane crash survivors, it’s time to do it ourselves, he says.
“That’s the challenge for us, and that’s the opportunity.
“How often have people had the chance to save their biosphere? And their species? It’s a big ticket ask. But if we change the way we behave, the way we travel, the way we eat, the way we spend, make it clear to our politicians, the way we vote, then we can do it.
“When we’re talking to our politicians, try to think about their side of things. Don’t bring them problems, bring them solutions.
“Let’s invest in this way. Let’s grow a business that way. Let’s do the following things that will make the difference. Find the companies that are doing the right things and work with them.”
The health care sector in Britain is doing its part.
“We’re big spenders,” says Professor Montgomery.
“In Britain, it’s now being written into contracts. Every National Health Service contract above 5 million pounds has to have decarbonisation built into the contract. So as a supplier, you have to say, I’m X per cent down, which will eventually be zero.
“And that bar is going to move down from 5 million pounds, slowly down to every contract.
“Every contract will soon ask two questions:- does it work; and number two, is it zero carbon? No? Okay, then we can’t buy it from you.”
COVID-19 has had its effect on the climate change debate, says Professor Montgomery.
“COVID showed us we live now in the age of consequence. We were reminded that the actions we take, or don’t take, matter. They can matter lethally.
“We’re now at that situation with climate change. It’s no longer some existential threat down the pipe. It’s no longer something we have to think about for our grandchildren. This is about us in the coming few decades.
“This is us and if we have young children, it’s absolutely about them, too.
“We have a responsibility to act. In the health sector, we’re good communicators, we’ve got a massive budget and the health sector worldwide can join together to take action.
“If people are left wondering, what is it that I can do in my personal life, the answer is quite simple.
“Go online, find a good carbon calculator. It’ll take you half an hour to fill in, find out the bits of your life that are the high carbon things and just hit those quickly and easily to start with.
“You’ll feel really good about yourself. Then work out how you do the rest of it and bring people with you.”
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