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Public health management of hepatitis B virus contacts

To the Editor: The Auckland Statement on Viral Hepatitis, released in September 2012, called for action
to prevent new hepatitis B and C infections.1 Estimates suggest that more than 200 000 Australians are living with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, with nearly half being unaware of their diagnosis.2,3 Childhood vaccination is crucial to HBV prevention, but many people from high-risk populations, including immigrants and refugees from endemic countries, are infected before arriving in Australia.4 Targeted screening of high-risk groups for susceptibility or undiagnosed infection is therefore also integral
to public health management of
HBV infection.

Although susceptible household contacts and sexual partners of all patients with HBV infection are at risk, most jurisdictions only follow up contacts for notifications of acute HBV infection and not unspecified or chronic infections, which represent over 95% of notifications.5 Contact testing therefore relies on local doctors, but contacts often do not attend the same clinic as the index patient, and incomplete contact follow-up is inevitable. Overseas data suggest that only 25% of contacts of patients with HBV are immune.6 A Victorian study found that 68% of adult household contacts were screened, but only 31% were fully vaccinated, and half the surveyed doctors were unaware of the availability of state-funded HBV vaccine for this indication.3

In 2011, a project was initiated to determine how frequently contacts of patients with chronic HBV infection seen at a tertiary referral hospital in Victoria had been tested and/or vaccinated. Ethics approval for the project was obtained from Melbourne Health. Dedicated funding was available for exploring knowledge of HBV transmission among patients with HBV, assessing their contacts’ HBV status, and determining the proportion of contacts willing to accept serological testing and free vaccination. Consent forms were delivered to contacts by the index patients. However, the study was prematurely terminated because
of poor contact response rates, suggesting tertiary care-based contact tracing is unlikely to be effective.

Instead of the current haphazard approach to HBV contact management, improved education and support for patients and general practitioners is needed. Active follow-up by health departments of all notifications would also be ideal.
If this is not feasible, a systematic approach to support contact tracing in the primary care setting might have merit, but remains unproven. Missed opportunities to diagnose infection or vaccinate susceptible contacts are public health failures.

Hospital-acquired influenza in an Australian sentinel surveillance system

Nosocomial influenza has been associated with significant morbidity, mortality and cost due to increased length of stay. It is likely to be under-recognised because of rapid turnover of patients and delays in diagnosis. Most previous reports of nosocomial influenza have involved known case clusters.1 We aimed to review cases of nosocomial influenza detected in a hospital-based surveillance program.

Methods

The Influenza Complications Alert Network (FluCAN) is a sentinel surveillance system that prospectively collects data on adult patients hospitalised with confirmed influenza.2 In 2010, this system involved 15 hospitals in all Australian jurisdictions and, in 2011, eight hospitals in Victoria, the Australian Capital Territory, South Australia and Western Australia. Surveillance was performed between April and November of each year.

Influenza was diagnosed using nucleic-acid detection from respiratory samples. Testing was performed at the discretion of treating clinicians but was encouraged for influenza-like illnesses because of infection prevention considerations. Seasonal influenza subtypes were not recorded, but other surveillance systems suggest that pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza was the major circulating strain in 2010 and 2011.3 Patients were identified by surveillance of laboratory testing logs. A nosocomial case was defined as polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza where the onset of symptoms was more than 2 days after the patient’s admission or, if this was not known, where the date of the positive test was more than 7 days after admission.

Continuous measures were compared using the Mann–Whitney U test, and categorical variables with the χ2 test or Fisher exact test as appropriate. We calculated crude (unadjusted) odds ratios (ORs) for characteristics of patients with nosocomial and community-acquired influenza. All statistical analysis was performed using Stata 12.1 (StataCorp). Ethics approval for the study was obtained from all sites and the Australian National University.

Results

Diagnosis of influenza

Of 598 patients diagnosed with confirmed influenza in the 2010 and 2011 surveillance periods, 26 (4.3%) had nosocomial influenza (Box 1). Cases were seen at multiple hospitals and were coincident with the presentation of community-acquired cases (data not shown). Compared with community-acquired cases, nosocomial cases were diagnosed sooner after onset of symptoms (Box 2). Symptom onset in the nosocomial group occurred a median of 12.5 days after admission.

Demographic characteristics and comorbidities

All patients with nosocomial influenza had chronic comorbidities, compared with 71.7% of community-acquired cases (P = 0.001) (Box 1). Patients with nosocomial influenza were significantly more likely to be immunosuppressed or have an underlying malignancy. Of the 22 nosocomial cases where vaccination status was known, eight patients (36.4%) had been vaccinated against influenza in the current season.

Clinical characteristics and initial treatment

Clinical findings at time of enrolment did not differ between the two groups, with similar rates of fever, cough, chest pain and dyspnoea (data not shown). Similar proportions of patients in both groups were treated with neuraminidase inhibitors. Treatment was initiated earlier in the nosocomial group, and a significantly higher proportion of this group received treatment within 2 days of onset of symptoms (Box 2).

Course of illness

The hospital stay included an admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) for 21.3% and 23.1% of patients with community-acquired and nosocomial influenza, respectively (Box 2). Of the six patients with nosocomial influenza who were cared for in the ICU, three were diagnosed before admission to the ICU.

Mortality

One patient, a man aged in his 40s with end-stage respiratory disease and renal disease requiring dialysis, died from nosocomial influenza. He had not been vaccinated against influenza. Influenza A (H3N2) was diagnosed on Day 18 of his admission, and he was treated with a 5-day course of oseltamivir. The patient died 2 weeks later from worsening respiratory failure.

Discussion

We found that nosocomial influenza was uncommon but may be severe. Our finding that 4.3% of hospitalised influenza patients had nosocomial influenza is similar to that from an observational cohort study in the United Kingdom in 2009–2010, which detected 30 nosocomial cases (2.0%) in 1520 hospitalised patients with influenza at 75 hospitals.4 The low numbers and high severity of illness may suggest underdiagnosis of mild cases, patients presenting after discharge, or the susceptibility of hospitalised patients with significant comorbidities, particularly malignancy and immunosuppression, reflected in the nosocomial cases reported here.2,5

Poor outcomes have been described for nosocomial influenza, particularly in neonates and in patients who are immunosuppressed.4 In our study, the proportion of patients requiring ICU admission was similar in the nosocomial and community-acquired influenza groups. This differs from the UK cohort,4 where more than half the patients with nosocomial influenza required intensive care support. Mortality in nosocomial cases was also low in our study, with only one death noted, while mortality as high as 26.7% was reported in the UK study.4 Compared with community-acquired influenza cases, we noted a significantly longer length of stay for patients with nosocomial influenza, but there are likely numerous factors confounding this observation. Nosocomial influenza has previously been associated with an increased hospitalisation duration of 8 days, as well as increased use of diagnostics and treatment.5

Strategies to reduce nosocomial transmission of influenza include vaccination of patients before the winter season, vaccination of contacts including health care workers and visitors, more effective barrier precautions including improving hand hygiene compliance, and encouraging staff to stay away from work when unwell. Although influenza vaccination is publicly funded for older people and those with chronic comorbidities, protection is incomplete. We found that vaccination failed in a third of patients and two-thirds were not vaccinated, consistent with studies estimating vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza6 and hospitalisation with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza at 49%–59%.7 Interventions to reduce transmission from infected contacts through barrier precautions and advice not to work or visit when unwell are hampered by infectivity before symptoms appear or by minimally symptomatic infection. Prophylactic antivirals are probably only feasible to contain outbreaks in closed facilities. Less than half of the patients with nosocomial influenza in our study received treatment with antivirals within 48 hours of symptom onset. This may reflect delays in diagnosis and the lack of efficacy of antivirals after 48 hours. This proportion is lower than in the UK cohort, where 57% of 21 patients received antivirals within 48 hours of onset of symptoms.4

The proportion of health care workers known to be vaccinated in Australian hospitals has been reported at around 40%.8 Although two cluster-randomised trials found that mortality was lower in long-term care facilities where vaccination was actively promoted, the conclusions have been criticised because of methodological concerns.9 The results appeared to be internally inconsistent, with a large mortality benefit despite a lack of detection of significant influenza disease. There has been recent interest in making influenza vaccination a mandatory condition of working with patients, and this policy has been implemented with some success in the United States.10 It is not clear whether the patients identified in our study acquired infection from health care workers, from other infected patients or from visitors.

Our results suggest that a small proportion of influenza cases detected in hospitalised patients are acquired during the hospital stay, and that this may be associated with severe disease in a significant proportion of these patients. The overwhelming majority of nosocomial influenza occurs in patients with pre-existing medical illness that places them at high risk of complications.

1 Demographic characteristics and comorbidities of patients with community-acquired or nosocomial influenza

Variable

Community-acquired influenza

Nosocomial
influenza

Odds ratio
(95% CI)


Number of patients

572

26

Male

273 (47.7%)

14 (53.8%)

1.3 (0.5–3.1)

Median age (range)

44 (0–93)

52 (26–89)

—*

Indigenous

24 (4.2%)

1 (3.8%)

0.9 (0.0–6.1)

Nursing home resident

11 (1.9%)

0

nd (0–7.7)

Pregnant

32 (5.6%)

1 (3.8%)

0.7 (0.0–4.4)

Smoker

120 (21.0%)

6 (23.1%)

1.1 (0.4–3.0)

Any chronic comorbidity

410 (71.7%)

26 (100.0%)

nd (2.7–nd)

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

17 (3.0%)

1 (3.8%)

1.3 (0.0–9.0)

Asthma

63 (11.0%)

2 (7.7%)

0.7 (0.1–2.8)

Diabetes

84 (14.7%)

6 (23.1%)

1.7 (0.6–4.7)

Immunosuppression

114 (19.9%)

13 (50.0%)

4.0 (1.7–9.7)

Malignancy

33 (5.8%)

4 (15.4%)

3.0 (0.7–9.5)

Cardiac disease

77 (13.5%)

2 (7.7%)

0.5 (0.1–2.2)

Neurological disease

51 (8.9%)

1 (3.8%)

0.4 (0.0–2.6)

Renal disease

43 (7.5%)

4 (15.4%)

2.2 (0.5–7.0)

Vaccinated in current season

101/311 (32.5%)

8/22 (36.4%)

1.2 (0.4–3.1)


nd = not defined. * P = 0.41.

2 Diagnosis and treatment of community-acquired or nosocomial influenza

Variable

Community-acquired influenza*

Nosocomial
influenza

Odds ratio
(95% CI)

P


Median days to diagnosis from onset of symptoms (range)

4 (0–41)

1.5 (0–8)

< 0.001

Delay to testing ≤ 2 days

173 (30.2%)

17 (65.4%)

4.4 (1.8–11.3)

< 0.001

Median days hospitalised before onset of influenza symptoms (range)

na

12.5 (3–64)

Influenza type

Influenza A

514 (89.9%)

24 (92.3%)

1.4 (0.3–12.1)

0.51

Influenza B

58 (10.1%)

2 (7.7%)

0.7 (0.1–3.1)

0.69

Treated with oseltamivir or zanamivir

337/529 (63.7%)

16/25 (64.0%)

1.0 (0.4–2.7)

0.93

Median days to treatment from symptom onset (IQR)

4 (2–6)

2 (2–3)

0.004

Delay to treatment ≤ 2 days

91 (15.9%)

10 (38.5%)

3.3 (1.3–8.0)

0.003

Treated with antibiotics

249/271 (91.9%)

7/11 (63.6%)

0.2 (0.0–0.8)

0.002

Admitted to intensive care unit

122 (21.3%)

6 (23.1%)

1.1 (0.4–2.9)

0.91

Mechanical ventilation

61/122 (50.0%)

4/6 (66.7%)

2.0 (0.3–22.8)

0.52

Vasopressor support

65/122 (53.3%)

0/6

0.06

Died

17 (3.0%)

1 (3.8%)

1.3 (0.0–9.0)

0.56

Median days hospitalised before diagnosis (IQR)

na

15.5 (7–32)

Median days hospitalised after diagnosis (IQR)

4.0 (2–7)

27.5 (3–35)

< 0.001


na = not applicable. IQR = interquartile range. * Denominator is 572 unless otherwise specified. Denominator is 26 unless otherwise specified.

A cross-sectional study of susceptibility to vaccine-preventable diseases among prison entrants in New South Wales

The custodial environment poses challenges for infectious disease management.1 With close contact between inmates and high population turnover, infectious diseases can spread rapidly. Prison outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases including mumps,2 varicella3,4 and hepatitis B5,6 have been reported.

Health care services in New South Wales prisons are provided by Justice Health and Forensic Mental Health Network, a statutory health corporation under the Ministry of Health. In August 2010, a measles outbreak was detected in prisons on the NSW North Coast. After this outbreak was contained, it was determined that more information was needed about susceptibility to vaccine-preventable diseases among adults in custody, to inform vaccination policies and clinical practices. At present, there is no policy on vaccination of prisoners against varicella, measles, mumps or rubella in NSW prisons. It is policy that all inmates be offered hepatitis B vaccination,7 but it is unclear what proportion of inmates commence or complete the vaccination schedule.

In this study, we aimed to determine the prevalence of susceptibility to measles, mumps, rubella, varicella and hepatitis B virus (HBV) among people entering prisons in NSW. Our secondary aims were to identify sociodemographic characteristics associated with disease susceptibility and to compare the susceptibility of prison entrants with the susceptibility of a community sample.

Methods

This study was undertaken as a NSW-only add-on to the triennial National Prison Entrants’ Bloodborne Virus and Risk Behaviour Survey.8 Both studies were approved by the Justice Health Human Research and Ethics Committee.

Recruitment

Between 11 October 2010 and 24 October 2010, participants were recruited in all seven NSW prison reception centres operating at the time of the survey. In 2010, the average daily number of new entrants was 29. All individuals entering prison from the community who were able to provide informed consent were eligible to participate. We were unable to exclude entrants who may have been vaccinated against measles, mumps and rubella as part of the response to the earlier measles outbreak. New prisoners were called to the clinic within 24 hours of entry into the prison and provided with an explanation of the project by a member of the interviewing team. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants. Blood test results were returned to participants and vaccination was offered where appropriate.

Data collection

All interviewers were trained in administering the questionnaire and accredited in venepuncture. Questionnaire items were related to sociodemographics, prior incarcerations, injecting drug use (IDU) and other risk behaviours. To protect participant confidentiality, questionnaires and venous blood samples were labelled using a coded identifier.

Blood samples were analysed at the Institute of Clinical Pathology and Medical Research, Westmead Hospital. Some samples were of insufficient volume to be tested for all target infections, resulting in varying sample sizes for each infection. Measles, mumps and varicella zoster virus-specific IgG antibody titres were measured using ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) kits (Enzygnost). Rubella IgG antibody titres were measured using microparticle enzyme immunoassays (Architect; Abbott Diagnostics). Samples were classed as antibody-positive, antibody-negative or equivocal in accordance with the test manufacturer’s standards. Participants with antibody-negative or equivocal results were considered susceptible to infection.

Hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc), hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs) and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) were measured using microparticle enzyme immunoassays (Architect; Abbott Diagnostics). Participant results were classified as follows:

  • participants with results that were negative to both anti-HBc and HBsAg were considered susceptible to HBV infection;

  • participants with results that were positive to both anti-HBc and HBsAg were considered to have a current infection;

  • participants with results that were positive for anti-HBC with an anti-HBs level of ≥ 10 mIU/mL but negative to HBsAg were considered immune as a result of past infection; and

  • participants with an anti-HBs level of ≥ 10 mIU/mL and results that were negative to both anti-HBc and HBsAg were considered immune as a result of vaccination.

Comparison data

The prison data were compared with NSW data from the 2007 Australian National Serosurveillance Program (ANSP). The ANSP collects stored serum samples from public and private diagnostic laboratories in each Australian state and territory. The collected sera are tested for antibodies to a variety of infectious diseases, including those tested in the Vaccine Preventable Diseases Study (VPDS).9,10 The data provided by the ANSP were the number of individuals, broken down by sex and birth cohort, with positive, equivocal and negative results for measles, mumps, rubella and varicella antibodies, and serological markers of HBV. Susceptibility to each disease was defined in the same manner as the prison data.

Data analysis

Data were analysed using SAS version 9.3 (SAS). Susceptibility to each disease was calculated and the χ2 test was used to test for differences according to sociodemographic characteristics and risk behaviours. For each disease, variables with P ≤ 0.05 (χ2 test) were entered into logistic regression models to determine independent predictors of susceptibility.

The ANSP data were weighted to match the birth cohort and sex distribution of the prison sample. Immunity of the prison and community samples to each disease was compared by calculating weighted risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals.

Results

Of 311 prison entrants approached to participate in the study, 211 (68%) completed the questionnaire and provided a blood sample. Participants were similar to non-participants in terms of Aboriginality and age. Women disproportionately declined to participate, comprising 3% of participants and 19% of non-participants.

Of the participant sample, 97% (204/211) were male, and 21% (44/211) identified as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander. The median age was 32 years (range, 17–79 years). Almost two-thirds of the participants (65%; 138/211) had previously been in prison, and 37% (75/202) had ever injected drugs (Box 1).

Measles, mumps, rubella and varicella

Of 203 participants with measles serology, 13% (27/203) were susceptible to infection (Box 1). Susceptibility was significantly higher in younger birth cohorts (P = 0.04), those with lower education levels (P = 0.02), and participants who had never injected drugs (P = 0.03). In multivariate analysis, birth cohort was not significantly associated with measles susceptibility (P = 0.1); however, less education (P = 0.02) and no history of IDU (P = 0.05) remained significant.

Of 198 participants with mumps serology, 41% (82/198) were susceptible to infection. Susceptibility was significantly higher among people born in Australia (P = 0.01), those with lower education levels (P = 0.05), and those without a history of IDU (P = 0.02). In multivariate analysis, being Australian-born (P = 0.009) and having no history of IDU (P = 0.007) remained significant predictors of mumps susceptibility.

Sixteen per cent of the participants (33/209) were susceptible to rubella, and 10% (19/198) were susceptible to varicella. There were no significant associations between susceptibility to rubella or varicella and demographic or behavioural characteristics.

Hepatitis B

Just over half of participants (52%; 106/204) were susceptible to HBV infection (Box 1); 3% (6/204) had acute or chronic infection, and 45% (92/204) were immune. Susceptibility was significantly higher among participants who were entering prison for the first time (P = 0.005), and those with no history of IDU (P = 0.003). In multivariate analysis, no history of IDU remained a significant predictor of susceptibility to HBV infection (P = 0.03).

Among the 92 participants who were HBV immune, 36% (33/92; 16% of the total sample) had acquired immunity through prior infection, and 64% (59/92; 29% of the total sample) had vaccine-conferred immunity. Post-hoc sub-analyses were undertaken to identify correlates of vaccine-conferred immunity among those with HBV data. Participants with a history of IDU were significantly more likely than than those with no history of IDU to have been vaccinated, with 28/72 (39%) of those with a history of IDU having been vaccinated, versus 31/126 (25%) of those with no history of IDU (P = 0.03). There was no significant relationship between prior incarceration and vaccine-conferred immunity; 44/134 participants (33%) who had previously been incarcerated had been vaccinated, compared with 15/70 (21%) who were entering prison for the first time (P = 0.08). There was no significant relationship between prior incarceration and vaccine-conferred immunity when the analysis was restricted to participants with a history of IDU; 27/63 (43%) of IDU prisoners with a prior incarceration were vaccinated, compared to 1/9 (11%) of IDU prisoners entering prison for the first time (P = 0.07).

Community comparison

Data from the ANSP were weighted and compared with the prison entrants’ data. Prison entrants were significantly less likely than those in the general community to be susceptible to varicella (10% versus 18%; P = 0.01) and HBV (52% versus 65%; P = 0.007). There were no significant differences between the prison and community samples in terms of susceptibility to measles, mumps or rubella (Box 2).

Discussion

Our analysis shows that the proportion of NSW prison entrants who are susceptible to vaccine-preventable diseases varies widely with each disease. Although prisoners’ susceptibility was lower than that of the general community for some diseases, recent experience with measles in NSW has shown that there are sufficient numbers of susceptible prisoners for outbreaks to occur. Recent work suggests that vaccination coverage of more than 95% may be necessary for the prevention of measles outbreaks.11 Entry into custody is an opportune time to routinely offer vaccinations against these infectious diseases in order to ensure high levels of immunity across the prisoner population. Combination measles–mumps–rubella vaccine, varicella vaccine, and HBV vaccine are all well tolerated by individuals who have previously been infected or vaccinated; as such, all individuals with an uncertain infection and vaccination history and without contraindications can safely commence these vaccination schedules. To our knowledge, the costs and benefits of routine vaccination in correctional settings have not been evaluated — a cost–benefit analysis would be an appropriate next step in developing vaccination policies.

Birth cohort and Aboriginality were not significant predictors of susceptibility to our target diseases. Participants born outside Australia were less likely to be susceptible to mumps, likely reflecting greater exposure to wild virus in the country of birth. No history of IDU was significantly associated with susceptibility to measles, mumps and HBV. In the case of measles and mumps, it is not clear if this association is a result of higher vaccination rates or exposure to wild virus. For HBV, there was some evidence of higher levels of vaccination among inmates with a history of IDU compared with those without. Despite policies mandating that HBV vaccine be offered to all inmates, there was no association between prior incarceration and HBV vaccination. A clear opportunity exists to improve HBV vaccination coverage among NSW prisoners in general, particularly those who inject drugs. The largest increases in HBV vaccination coverage are obtained through routine vaccination of prison entrants rather than in repeated mass campaigns.12,13 Administering vaccine via an accelerated schedule (on the day of entry into prison, 7 days after entry, 21 days after entry and a 12-month booster) can increase the proportion of prisoners completing the vaccination schedule.14

Limitations

This study included participants from all reception centres and we achieved a moderate response rate (68%). Some entrants with very short stays in prison (eg, less than 24 hours) may not have been approached to participate because of staffing limitations; we were unable to determine what proportion of entrants were not approached to participate. Participants were highly representative of the prisoner population in terms of age (participant median age, 32 years, versus population median age, 30–34 years) and Aboriginality (21% of participants versus 22% of population),15 but women were underrepresented in our sample, such that we were unable to draw conclusions about differences in susceptibility according to sex.

Conclusions

Currently, the Australian immunisation handbook recommends influenza, hepatitis A and hepatitis B vaccinations for prisoners.16 Given the potential for respiratory-spread infectious diseases to spread rapidly within prisons and into the community, and the high rates of IDU and other bloodborne virus risk behaviours among prisoners, there are logical benefits to ensuring that prisoners have high rates of immunity to infectious diseases. As such, we recommend a cost–benefit and feasibility analysis of implementing routine vaccination for measles, mumps, rubella and varicella, and exploration of options for improving uptake of HBV vaccination, such as accelerated schedules.

1 Demographic and behavioural characteristics and susceptibility to measles, mumps, rubella, varicella and hepatitis B virus among 211 prison entrants in New South Wales

Susceptibility (proportion of sample tested*)


All participants

Measles

Mumps

Rubella

Varicella

Hepatitis B


Total

211 (100%)

27/203 (13%)

82/198 (41%)

33/209 (16%)

19/198 (10%)

106/204 (52%)

Sex

Male

204 (97%)

27/196 (14%)

78/191 (41%)

33/202 (16%)

19/191 (10%)

103/200 (52%)

Female

7 (3%)

0/7

4/7 (57%)

0/7

0/7

3/4 (75%)

Indigenous status

Indigenous

44 (21%)

6/42 (14%)

19/38 (50%)

7/42 (17%)

0/42

17/40 (43%)

Non-Indigenous

167 (79%)

21/161 (13%)

63/160 (39%)

26/167 (16%)

19/156 (12%)

89/164 (54%)

Birth cohort

< 1968

35 (17%)

3/32 (9%)

13/35 (37%)

4/35 (11%)

3/35 (9%)

19/35 (54%)

1969–1978

62 (29%)

3/57 (5%)

19/57 (33%)

10/61 (16%)

4/56 (7%)

27/57 (47%)

1979–1988

77 (36%)

12/74 (16%)

32/73 (44%)

12/76 (16%)

7/73 (10%)

42/76 (55%)

> 1989

37 (18%)

9/37 (24%)

18/33 (55%)

7/37 (19%)

5/34 (15%)

18/36 (50%)

Country of birth

Australia

163 (77%)

23/157 (15%)

71/154 (46%)

27/161 (17%)

13/154 (8%)

85/157 (54%)

Other

48 (23%)

4/46 (9%)

11/44 (25%)

6/48 (13%)

6/44 (14%)

21/47 (45%)

Education

Year 10 or less

149 (71%)

24/143 (17%)

63/137 (46%)

24/148 (16%)

12/139 (9%)

78/146 (53%)

Year 11 or greater

62 (29%)

3/60 (5%)

19/61 (31%)

9/61 (15%)

7/59 (12%)

28/58 (48%)

First time in prison

No

138 (65%)

20/132 (15%)

53/129 (41%)

22/136 (16%)

11/128 (9%)

60/134 (45%)

Yes

73 (35%)

7/71 (10%)

29/69 (42%)

11/73 (15%)

8/70 (11%)

46/70 (66%)

Ever injected drugs§

No

127/202 (63%)

21/125 (17%)

59/122 (48%)

18/126 (14%)

10/119 (8%)

75/126 (60%)

Yes

75/202 (37%)

4/70 (6%)

21/68 (31%)

12/74 (16%)

8/71 (11%)

27/72 (38%)


* Sample size varies with each disease because some samples were of insufficient volume to be tested for all target infections. P < 0.05 using χ2 test. P < 0.05 in multivariate logistic regression models with participant characteristics as independent variables. § Data were missing for nine participants.

2 Comparison of susceptibility to measles, mumps, rubella, varicella and hepatitis B virus in the community and in 211 prison entrants in New South Wales

Proportion susceptible



Community sample (weighted percentage)*

Prison entrants

Risk ratio (95% CI)

Measles

217/1281 (16%)

27/203 (13%)

1.2 (0.7–2.2)

Mumps

579/1281 (44%)

82/198 (41%)

1.1 (0.8–1.3)

Rubella

117/1281 (15%)

33/209 (16%)

0.9 (0.6–1.5)

Varicella

394/1229 (18%)

19/198 (10%)

1.9 (1.1–3.2)§

Hepatitis B

602/933 (65%)

106/204 (52%)

1.3 (1.1–1.5)§


* Actual number of participants; percentage weighted to match the birth cohort and sex distribution of the prison sample. Data from the 2007 Australian National Serosurveillance Program. Risk ratio is the ratio of weighted risk in the community sample divided by the risk in the prison sample. § P < 0.05 using the χ2 test.

Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis hovers threateningly at Australia’s door

Tony Kirby explains why we should provide full care to all people arriving with resistant tuberculosis

It was hoped that extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) might never arrive on Australia’s shores. But new cases raise the spectre of death for patients, transmission to others and large costs for Australian taxpayers. Papua New Guinea (PNG) national Catherina Abraham, aged 20 years, “made it” to Australia and hit the headlines in October 2012 because she had been diagnosed with XDR-TB.1 After almost a year in an isolation ward at Cairns Base Hospital, she died on 8 March 2013. Her treatment cost Queensland Health about $500 000 and would have cost $1 million had she lived to complete it.1 Now another PNG national has been diagnosed with XDR-TB in Australia. In the preceding 8 years, only two other XDR-TB cases were recorded in Australia.2

According to Queensland Health, the most recently diagnosed patient came through the Torres Strait, was referred to Cairns Base Hospital and was transferred to PNG health services before the laboratory diagnosis of XDR-TB was made. He or she is currently in Daru Hospital (in PNG’s Western Province, the closest to Cape York). Although TB treatment is meant to be free for patients in PNG, potential exposure to other patients, the cost of sourcing active drugs, and the complexity and length of XDR-TB treatment mean that this patient is at significant risk of dying. A recent television exposé of Daru Hospital showed numerous patients with XDR-TB and multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) mixing together and leaving their isolation wards, resulting in the risk of drug-resistant TB spreading through the community.1 Experts believe Abraham would have died within 1 month had she not reached Cairns and also predict that Australia could see its own outbreak of XDR-TB within 5 years.1

In comparison, 24 patients have been diagnosed with XDR-TB in the United Kingdom since 1995, six of whom were diagnosed in 2011.3 Patients with XDR-TB and the still-challenging MDR-TB in the UK are largely migrants from Eastern Europe, Africa and Asia. Last year, the UK government began requiring new entrants from TB-prevalent nations to have a chest x-ray with them on arrival to be granted a visa to enter the UK.3 Yet, owing to the UK’s porous air and sea borders and its accessibility and proximity to Europe, it is much more vulnerable than Australia to receiving patients with MDR-TB and XDR-TB. According to the UK’s Health Protection Agency, screening new entrants for latent TB would also be desirable. However, Australia is unlikely to enact a similar policy since it would produce many positive results for latent infection without identifying which patients would progress to active or drug-resistant disease (Justin Waring, Chair of the National Tuberculosis Advisory Committee, personal communication). So apart from the Qld–PNG border, it is difficult to predict where other XDR-TB or MDR-TB cases may appear in Australia, since migrants with latent infection can reside in any Australian city or region.

In Australia, significant resources can, at present, be directed at patients with XDR-TB. Yet in PNG, all forms of TB compete for resources with a catalogue of other health and social problems, including high rates of diarrhoeal illness, pneumonia, HIV (many patients with HIV are co-infected with TB), malaria, maternal mortality, and widespread and crippling poverty.4

The strategic plan for control of tuberculosis in Australia: 2011–2015 highlights the need to increase engagement with regional partners in TB control, particularly PNG’s Western Province.5 The plan also stresses that Australia’s workforce with TB expertise is diminishing, while its workload is increasing because of increasing numbers of patients from
TB-prevalent countries and increasing complexity of cases, including drug resistance. TB is also becoming increasingly unfamiliar on the overcrowded curriculum for Australia’s medical students.5 Going forward, continued TB education and training for general practitioners will be vital to enable rapid diagnosis of active TB (wherever it may occur), minimise transmission, and enable use of the latest technology to identify and treat patients with drug-resistant TB.2

Well coordinated TB management programs and general health care provision for people of Western Province must be urgently expanded to avoid increases in incidence of MDR-TB and XDR-TB and reduce the risk of more patients arriving in Australia. But patients who receive inadequate treatment in poor nations such as PNG, and patients who are unknowingly infected, will inevitably reach the Torres Strait or Australia’s mainland. Thus, conscious of Australia’s position as one of the world’s richest countries, TB experts agree that all patients with TB who present to health services in Australia should have free and equal access to TB care — from diagnosis to completion of treatment — irrespective of their legal status or demographic characteristics.6

Evidence-based policies for the control of influenza

Influenza vaccines can prevent serious outcomes of infection, but vaccine policies should be based on the best contemporary evidence

In this issue of the Journal, two studies draw attention to potential difficulties in protecting vulnerable people from influenza infection. In the first study, Wiley and colleagues report a 27% uptake of influenza vaccine by pregnant women in three hospitals in New South Wales in 2011, with differences in uptake attributable to how the vaccine was promoted and the ease of accessing it.1 Influenza vaccination of pregnant women is an important issue that was highlighted during the 2009 pandemic. In Australia, the risk of hospitalisation with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza for pregnant women compared with non-pregnant women aged 15–44 years was increased by about fivefold2 and the risk of admission to intensive care, by about sevenfold.3 The World Health Organization recently recommended influenza vaccination for pregnant women as the highest priority for countries considering initiation or expansion of programs for seasonal influenza vaccines.4

In the second study, Macesic and colleagues estimated that 4% of almost 600 cases of laboratory-proven influenza in sentinel Australian hospitals in 2010 and 2011 were acquired in hospital.5 Although the estimated risk was low, the outcome could be severe. One patient with end-stage respiratory disease died, and 23% of patients required intensive care. Hospitals should be safe places, and acquiring influenza as an inpatient is potentially preventable. Prevention involves five arms: cohorting or isolation of patients with suspected infection; studious attention to respiratory precautions and hand hygiene; preventing staff and visitors with respiratory symptoms from entering the facility; vaccination of everyone with patient contact, including health care workers, visitors and family members; and vaccination of patients.

Influenza vaccination is recommended in the Australian immunisation handbook for patients at increased risk of an adverse outcome from influenza infection, and is funded for these patients.6 All the patients with hospital-acquired influenza in Macesic et al’s study had comorbidities that rendered them eligible for free influenza vaccine, but only 36% had been vaccinated.5 To protect themselves and their patients, the Australian immunisation handbook also recommends that health care workers be vaccinated.6

Vaccination can help prevent influenza infection in pregnant women and hospital inpatients, but it is not a perfect intervention. For many years it has been suggested that trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine provided protection to 70%–90% of participants in randomised controlled trials (RCTs).4,6 However, a more recent estimate from a meta-analysis of vaccines licensed in the United States suggested that protection for adults under the age of 65 years, even in the controlled environment of the RCT, was around 59%.7 A large RCT conducted in Australia and New Zealand during the 2008 and 2009 influenza seasons estimated efficacy as 42% (95% CI, 30%–52%) against all strains of influenza, including the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus, while the point estimate for matched strains was 60%. The higher efficacy against vaccine strains matched to circulating strains is expected.8 Participants in RCTs are generally young and healthy, whereas influenza vaccines are funded in Australia for people who are older or have underlying medical conditions, for whom the vaccine may be less effective.

How then do trial results compare with estimates from the field? Recent observational studies from Australia of influenza vaccine effectiveness in routine practice are broadly supportive of estimates from the trials.7,8 Over the period from 2007 to 2011, but excluding the pandemic year of 2009, influenza vaccine effectiveness among adults aged 20–64 years presenting to sentinel general practices in Victoria was estimated as 62% (95% CI, 43%–75%).9 In a study of sentinel Australian hospitals in 2010, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation with confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza, the dominant circulating virus that year, was estimated as 49% (95% CI, 13%–70%).10

Trial results can legitimately be compared with Australian observational studies because most of the vaccines used in the trials were trivalent inactivated vaccines, the only type of vaccine currently licensed in Australia, and the end points in all studies were laboratory-confirmed, medically attended influenza. There are no specific vaccine effectiveness estimates for pregnant women or health care workers in Australia, but it is not unreasonable to expect effectiveness for these two groups to be in the range for other adults.

It is important to continue to promote influenza vaccination as a cornerstone of protection against infection and adverse outcomes, but it is also important not to overstate the effectiveness of current inactivated vaccines. Estimates that are not based on contemporary evidence have the potential to undermine confidence in the vaccine. Although not ideal, a vaccine that may protect around half of all recipients from an infection requiring medical attention (a general practitioner visit or hospital admission) can definitely be recommended. Vaccination remains the single best option for controlling influenza, but improved vaccines will make policy setting and promotion of vaccination much easier.11,12

Challenges in regulating influenza vaccines for children

Lessons need to be drawn from the assessment and licensing of influenza vaccines in previous years

In April 2010, Australia suspended paediatric influenza vaccinations as a result of febrile convulsions associated with seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV). Epidemiological investigations have established that the increase in febrile reactions was limited to one of three brands of TIV used in Australia that year — CSL Biotherapies Fluvax or Fluvax Junior (CSL TIV), registered as Afluria in the United States and Enzira in the United Kingdom.13 Health authorities in Australia estimated that the risk of febrile convulsions in children aged 6 months to 4 years after vaccination with CSL 2010 TIV ranged from 3–10 per 1000 vaccinated.1,3 This figure is remarkable because TIV has an excellent safety record in children and before 2010 was only rarely associated with febrile convulsions. The largest published population-based study found only one febrile convulsion after TIV vaccination of 45 356 children aged 6–23 months,4 giving a risk estimate of 2.2 convulsions per 100 000. Nonetheless, age-related differences in the reactogenicity of influenza vaccines and the potential for influenza vaccines to cause febrile reactions in children had been recognised for decades.5 Reviewing the regulatory history of the CSL influenza vaccine for children (Box) suggests there may be opportunities for improving the licensure of paediatric influenza vaccines.

Licensure of CSL Fluvax for children

In 2002, Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) registered the thiomersal-free CSL TIV Fluvax for use in persons aged 6 months and older.6 Between 2004 and 2005, CSL TIV was approved for paediatric use in Sweden, the UK and Denmark despite a European Public Assessment Report which indicated that, at the time of initial registration in Europe, “no controlled clinical studies had been conducted in infants, young children, or young adolescents”.7 The assessment also acknowledged that the extent of CSL TIV use among paediatric populations at the time was “not well understood”.7

The first paediatric study of CSL TIV began in March 2005 as a post-licensure commitment to the Swedish Medical Products Agency.7,8 Conducted in Australia, the study involved vaccinating 298 children less than 9 years of age with two doses of the 2005 formulation of TIV.9 In the following year, 273 of the children received a “booster” dose using the 2006 TIV formulation, which had different influenza A(H3N2) and B vaccine virus antigens.9,10 The study results, published in 2009, showed a marked difference between the risk of reported fever, depending on the annual formulation of the CSL TIV administered.9 Among children less than 3 years of age, the proportion experiencing fever was 22.5% after vaccination with the CSL 2005 TIV formulation and 39.5% after vaccination with the 2006 formulation.9 For children aged 3–8 years, the proportions experiencing fever were also elevated in 2006, rising from 15.6% and 8.2% for doses 1 and 2 in 2005, respectively, to 27.0% after vaccination with the 2006 TIV formulation.9 Reanalysis of the published data shows that the increase in the proportion of children with fever after vaccination in 2006 compared with either vaccine dose in 2005 was statistically significant for both age groups (P < 0.05). In addition, two serious adverse events were reported from this study. Both reports were of fever and vomiting on the evening of vaccination with CSL 2006 TIV, with one of the children also experiencing a febrile convulsion — a clinical picture similar to the adverse events subsequently associated with CSL TIV in 2010.3,6,9

2007 US FDA finding: paediatric safety not established

In March 2007, CSL submitted a biologics license application (BLA) to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requesting approval to market TIV for adults in the US. To enhance the safety database, CSL also provided the FDA with data from the 2005–2006 Australian paediatric study. The FDA concluded that the Australian paediatric study had not identified any unusual safety concerns,8 although a separate assessment by FDA statisticians conducted later noted the small sample size and lack of comparator arm, and stated “this study was not designed to test any hypothesis”.11 In September 2007, the FDA wrote that “ . . . the pediatric study was not controlled for safety. Therefore, at this time the data will not be considered for approval in a pediatric population”.8 Accordingly, the prescribing information for the CSL TIV formulation distributed in the US for 2008–2009 stated that the “safety and effectiveness in the pediatric population have not been established”.12

The US Pediatric Research Equity Act of 2003 requires that clinical studies are conducted in children for biological products under development.8,13 As part of the accelerated approval of CSL TIV for adults in the US, CSL agreed to conduct the first randomised controlled trial of CSL TIV in children, which was scheduled to begin in August 2009 (CSLCT-USF-07-36).8

In the interim, two developments prompted the FDA to reassess the paediatric indication for CSL TIV without waiting for the results from this study. The first was a decision in 2008 by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to expand the recommendation for annual influenza vaccination to include children 5 to < 18 years of age.6 The second was the onset of the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in April 2009. Accelerated approval of CSL’s seasonal influenza vaccine for children would facilitate licensure of CSL’s monovalent pandemic vaccine for children because

an approved pediatric indication [for CSL TIV] would permit approval of the H1N1 vaccine in children as a strain change as has been done for adults, and would obviate the need for an Emergency Use Authorization in the pediatric population.6

While acknowledging the limitations of the existing data, the FDA concluded that “due to constraints related to the influenza shortage in 2004 and current concerns related to the circulating H1N1 pandemic swine flu strain, less stringent criteria for submission for BLA is acceptable”.11 Ultimately, the FDA determined that “extenuating circumstances have changed the risk benefit ratio for the pediatric indication” and recommended that CSL TIV “be granted approval in children 6 months to < 18 years of age because of newly recognized potential clinical benefit that outweigh known risks”.6

Data emerge from the first controlled trial of the CSL TIV in children

The paediatric trial of CSL 2009–2010 TIV compared with a US-licensed comparator (NCT00959049) was completed in May 2010, just weeks after suspension of childhood influenza vaccinations in Australia. Data from this unpublished study are available on the US National Institutes of Health website, albeit without statistical analysis.14 Independent examination of the data showed that children aged 6 months to < 3 years who received a first dose of CSL TIV experienced fever (≥ 37.5°C axillary or ≥ 38.0°C oral) nearly three times as often as those receiving the comparator (37% v 14%, respectively; P < 0.00005).14 In addition, children in this age cohort were significantly more likely to experience severe fever (> 39.5°C axillary or > 40.0°C oral; P < 0.05), irritability (P < 0.00005), loss of appetite (P < 0.005), or severe nausea/vomiting (P < 0.005) after receiving a first dose of CSL TIV compared with those receiving the comparator vaccine. Children aged 3 to < 9 years who received a first dose of CSL TIV were significantly more likely to experience fever (22% v 9%, respectively; P < 0.0005) and malaise (29% v 13%; P < 0.0005).14 The seasonal TIV formulation used for this trial was antigenically distinct to the formulation subsequently associated with severe febrile reactions in Australia in 2010 (specifically, the 2009–2010 northern hemisphere vaccine did not contain pandemic 2009 H1N1 strain antigens and used a different H3N2 vaccine strain).10 Taken together, data from this study and the experience in Australia in 2010 indicate that, compared with other contemporaneous TIVs, CSL TIV was associated with a higher risk of fever in children over two consecutive manufacturing seasons using different H1N1 and H3N2 viral strains.3,14 The findings from the 2005–2006 Australian study extend this observation, suggesting that CSL TIV may have been associated with a high risk of fever in children, at least intermittently, in other years.9

In hindsight, it would appear that the US decision to grant a paediatric indication for CSL TIV in 2009 without the benefit of data from a controlled paediatric clinical trial may have led to an optimistic assessment of the risks and benefits of this vaccine. The CSL TIV associated with severe febrile reactions in the southern hemisphere in 2010 was antigenically equivalent to that distributed in the northern hemisphere for the 2010–2011 influenza season.10 If Australia had not identified the safety signal in April 2010 — an event which led directly to health authority recommendations in the US and UK that CSL TIV not be administered to children aged < 5 years for the upcoming 2010–2011 influenza season — it is possible that febrile adverse reactions associated with this formulation might have been observed among children in those countries.15,16

It is nearly 3 years since the use of CSL TIV in young children was suspended, and laboratory investigations undertaken by CSL have not yet identified a definitive cause of the adverse reactions.17 CSL has acknowledged, however, that the increase in febrile adverse events in children in 2010 may have been due, at least in part, to “differences in the manufacturing processes used to manufacture CSL TIVs compared to other licensed TIVs on the market”.17 Suboptimal virus splitting or other mechanisms related to CSL’s use of deoxycholate have been suggested as possible contributing factors.18

Last year a joint working group of the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation and the TGA reviewed data on adverse events associated with different TIV brands among persons over 10 years of age and concluded that “the safety profile of many currently registered inactivated influenza vaccines is likely to differ and evidence to support this exists”.19 This observation underscores that assumptions regarding the safety of influenza vaccines may not be transferable across brands.

Lessons learned

CSL TIV was licensed for use in children in a number of countries without the benefit of data from controlled paediatric clinical trials. The results of the only paediatric randomised controlled trial to date, conducted 7 years after thiomersal-free Fluvax was licensed for children in Australia, and Australia’s experience in 2010 demonstrate the risks inherent with this approach. Ideally, adequately powered, controlled paediatric studies should be conducted before a vaccine is licensed for children.20 Regulatory decisions on a paediatric indication for a vaccine can be challenging and are even more difficult if the safety profile of the vaccine has not been established. If circumstances do not permit a rigorous assessment of a vaccine’s safety before licensure, as could be argued for the US in 2009 with an influenza pandemic approaching, this important caveat should be communicated to providers and consumers. In addition, given that the antigenic composition of influenza vaccines often changes from year to year, comprehensive postmarketing surveillance for adverse events is essential to maintain public trust and ensure the long-term success of paediatric influenza vaccination programs.21

Influenza vaccine and serious febrile reactions in children: timeline of key events

2002

Nov

  • Australia registers thiomersal-free CSL Fluvax trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) for use in infants and young children

    • No prior paediatric safety or efficacy studies of Fluvax have been conducted

2004

Oct

  • Sweden licenses CSL TIV for use in children aged 6 months or older

    • CSL makes a postapproval commitment to conduct a paediatric study

2005

Mar

  • The first paediatric study of CSL Fluvax commences with 298 children

Apr

  • The United Kingdom licenses CSL TIV for use in children aged 6 months or older

Jun–Dec

  • Denmark and the Netherlands license CSL TIV for use in children aged over 6 months

2006

Jun

  • The first paediatric study of CSL Fluvax finishes

    • Two study participants experience serious adverse events “possibly” related to the vaccine; one is a febrile seizure

2007

Sep

  • United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gives CSL TIV accelerated approval for adults

    • FDA determines that safety and effectiveness of CSL TIV in the paediatric population have not been established

    • CSL commits to a paediatric trial using another US-licensed TIV as a control

2008

Mar

  • US expands influenza vaccinations to include all children 5–18 years of age

2009

Apr

  • World Health Organization signals that an influenza pandemic is imminent

Sep

  • First randomised controlled trial of CSL TIV in children begins in the US

Nov

  • FDA licenses CSL TIV for children citing pandemic and vaccine shortage concerns

2010

Apr

  • CSL 2010 TIV is associated with febrile seizures in up to 1 in 100 vaccinated children in Australia

    • Australia temporarily suspends all influenza vaccinations for children aged < 5 years

Jul

  • UK recommends not using CSL TIV in children < 5 years for the 2010–2011 season

Jul

  • Australia recommends not using 2010 CSL TIV for children < 5 years

Aug

  • US recommends not using CSL TIV in children < 5 years for the 2010–2011 season

2011

Jul

  • Results from first randomised controlled trial of CSL TIV in children become publicly available

    • CSL 2009–2010 TIV is associated with higher risk of fever and other adverse events than the US-licensed TIV comparator

2012

Oct

  • CSL publishes laboratory investigations, but the cause of the adverse events in 2010 remains undetermined

Risk of measles transmission on aeroplanes: Australian experience 2007–2011

Experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome1 and pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza2 has clearly shown the potential for air travel to result in the spread of emerging respiratory diseases. Similarly, countries (like Australia) that have successfully interrupted local transmission of measles virus face repeated importation of measles by travellers who are infected overseas.3 Australian residents made a record eight million short-term trips overseas in the 2011–12 financial year.4 In addition, around 6 million visitors from overseas arrive in Australia each year,4 many from countries with endemic measles transmission.

There is little published information on the risk of transmission from infectious measles cases during aeroplane travel, or the effectiveness of contact tracing in this setting. Current Australian guidelines recommend direct follow-up of contacts of all people with measles who are considered to be infectious during a flight. Contacts are defined as people seated in the same row, two rows in front of and two rows behind an infectious person.5 There were no reports of measles transmission on aeroplanes in Australia in the decade before development of these guidelines,5 which were informed by evidence from the United States that secondary transmission on aeroplanes was rare and probably related to seating proximity.6 However, since the guidelines were published, there have been multiple reports of measles transmission to passengers sitting further than two rows from the index case.3,79

In response to the increasing number of published reports and anecdotal evidence of measles transmission on aeroplanes, we aimed to quantify the risk of transmission of measles associated with infectious people who travelled on flights to or within Australia, to inform contact-tracing guidelines. We reviewed all cases of measles notified from January 2007 to June 2011 and known to have travelled on aeroplanes in Australia while infectious. We also collected information about any secondary cases identified among aeroplane travellers.

Methods

Measles is a notifiable disease in all Australian states and territories under local legislation, and all cases are subject to follow-up by public health authorities. Our study was undertaken under the auspices of the Communicable Diseases Network Australia (CDNA), which oversees communicable disease surveillance in Australia. The CDNA asked each jurisdiction to provide de-identified data for people who travelled on an aeroplane to or within Australia while infectious with measles. People were considered to have been infectious on the flight if they travelled during the 4 days before and the 4 days after the onset of the measles rash.

Each jurisdiction was provided with a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet on which to record details of the index case (age, vaccination history, dates of flight departure and arrival, flight number, flight duration, seat number, number of days from arrival to diagnosis and notification of the illness, and the date the flight manifest became available to public health authorities) and logistical information for contact tracing (total number of passengers and cabin crew, the numbers of passengers and staff contacted and uncontactable, and any secondary measles cases identified among the passenger cohort). For each secondary case identified, information on seating and other potential sources of measles exposure was requested. The study period was from 1 January 2007 to 30 June 2011 for all jurisdictions except Western Australia and Victoria, which provided data for longer periods (to 19 September 2011 and 30 October 2011, respectively).

All data were cleaned and collated using Microsoft Excel and analysed using SPSS, version 20 (SPSS Inc). Differences between flights on which transmission did and did not occur were compared using the independent samples t test (age in years), independent samples Mann–Whitney U test (flight times) or Fisher exact test (categorical data). Confidence intervals for transmission occurrences were calculated using the Byar approximation to the Poisson distribution.10 The level of significance was considered to be P < 0.05.

Ethics approval was not required, as our study evaluated surveillance practice using de-identified data collected during the routine public health response to measles as a notifiable disease.

Results

A total of 327 measles cases were notified in Australia during the study period. Forty-five people (14%; 95% CI, 10%–18%) flew on a total of 49 flights while infectious, of which 13 flights were domestic and 36 were international. Where known, most index cases were Australians who acquired their infection while travelling overseas, with a minority being overseas visitors who acquired their infection before travelling to or within Australia.

Twenty secondary cases occurred among people on seven (14%; 95% CI, 6%–29%) of the 49 flights, comprising 7 of 36 international flights (19%; 95% CI, 8%–40%) and none of the 13 (0; 95% CI, 0–28%) domestic flights that carried infectious people. Nine people identified as secondary cases were seated in the same row or within two rows fore and aft of the index case; 11 were outside these rows, one of whom was a member of the cabin crew (Box 1). After index cases were diagnosed and their contacts were traced, immunoprophylaxis (measles–mumps–rubella [MMR] vaccine or normal human immunoglobulin [NHIG]) was offered to identified susceptible contacts seated within two rows fore and aft of the index case11 on three of the seven flights on which documented secondary transmission occurred (Box 2). On two of these three flights there were no secondary cases within two rows of the index case; on the third, there were five secondary cases within two rows, but none received immunoprophylaxis: three declined, one gave a verbal history of vaccination in another country and the fifth was missed during the initial contact tracing.

Secondary transmission was more likely to occur if the index case was younger (P = 0.025) or there were multiple infectious cases on board (P = 0.018) (Box 3). Two family groups with multiple infectious cases — two siblings aged 3 and 7 years, and three siblings aged 12–17 years — were associated with one and three secondary cases, respectively, on two flights. While there was a suggested association between transmission and flights of longer duration, this was not significant and transmission did occur on three flights shorter than 8 hours (4.5, 7.5 and 7.8 hours) (Box 3).

Among the 20 secondary cases, three people had been fully vaccinated (ie, had received two documented MMR vaccinations), two had one documented MMR vaccination, nine were unvaccinated and vaccination status was unknown for six. Mean age was 25 years (range, 11–47 years). Most secondary cases (11/20) were identified independently and in-flight exposure was determined after notification. The remaining cases (9/20) were identified during the contact-tracing process, with subsequent onset of illness and notification.

Fifteen of the 49 flight manifests were available to public health authorities within 5 days of the flight, 14 were available within 6–7 days and 20 after 8 or more days. The mean time to notification of public health authorities of an infectious measles case on an aeroplane was 6.5 days from the date of the flight, with an additional mean of 1.4 days (median, 1; range, 0–5 days) to obtain flight manifests and contact details for passengers. Provision of postexposure immunoprophylaxis to contacts was possible in less than one in five flights (Box 4).

Data on the number of passenger contacts followed up were available for 40 flights, for which attempts were made to contact 1082 passengers (mean, 27 per flight). Applying this mean to the 49 flights, which yielded nine secondary cases, the risk of acquiring measles if seated within the two-plus-two row range recommended by contact-tracing guidelines was estimated as 0.0068; hence, an estimated 147 (95% CI, 77–322) passengers were contacted to identify each “future” secondary case. Similarly, the risk of acquiring measles in rows 3–8 distant from an index case, assuming a wide-bodied jet with 10 passengers per row, was 0.0014, with an average of 720 (95% CI, 368–1471) passenger contacts requiring follow-up per secondary case identified.

Discussion

Our analysis of people notified with measles who were likely to have been infectious or infected while travelling on aeroplanes in Australia showed that just over half of the people identified as secondary cases were seated outside the two-plus-two row distance recommended by contact-tracing guidelines in Australia5 and elsewhere.12,13 This result is consistent with other recently published literature reporting the occurrence of measles transmission on aeroplanes. Eleven reports3,69,1419 (two of which refer to cases included in this study; see Appendix (pdf)) listed a total of 36 secondary cases associated with transmission in aeroplanes, with only six cases having documented seating within two rows of the index case. However, the literature is limited by publication bias favouring reporting of flights on which secondary transmission occurs, and probably of flights where cases occur outside contact-tracing guidelines. By including all people notified with measles within a defined 4.5-year period, who travelled on aeroplanes while infectious, our study overcomes the disadvantage of publication bias, and provides valuable information on the incidence of and factors associated with secondary transmission of measles on aircraft.

Aircraft cabin design is thought to limit the transmission of infectious diseases spread by droplets or aerosols, such that the greatest risk is to those seated in rows adjacent to an infected individual. Air circulation patterns are side to side, with little front to back airflow, and air exits the cabin near the floor. Recirculated air passes through high efficiency particulate (HEPA) filters which are effective against microorganisms, including viruses, before cabin redelivery.20,21 However, coughing may spread respiratory droplets in an aeroplane environment,22 and risk assessments based on seating proximity do not take into account passenger movements before (eg, at check-in), during (eg, toilet visits) and after (eg, baggage collection) the flight. Despite the designed airflow environment, transmission of measles during international aeroplane travel is not rare if there is an infectious case on board, nor is it limited to the current two-plus-two row contact-tracing recommendations, as we have shown.

The risk of measles acquisition depends on exposure to respiratory droplets, which can become aerosolised. Speculatively, younger-aged cases may have been more likely to transmit infection because children are less able to contain their respiratory secretions. Not surprisingly, risk of transmission was also increased by multiple infectious cases on board. In addition to being associated with three secondary cases in Australia, the three siblings on one flight who were infectious were associated with a further five secondary cases on a subsequent flight to New Zealand.8

European risk assessment guidelines state that no documented cases of measles transmission have occurred on flights shorter than 8 hours.12 However, transmission has been reported on short duration flights.8,9 In addition, although not stated, it could be assumed that flights from the Netherlands to England,14 Venezuela to Miami, USA,17 within Brazil7 and within the US16 would be less than 8 hours. A recent literature review13 concluded that “flight duration is not an important factor”. Our study showed transmission risk may be greater on longer duration international flights, although transmission also occurred on three flights shorter than 8 hours.

Measles contact tracing aims to provide contacts with education, counselling and, where appropriate, with immunoprophylaxis to prevent illness. Recommended prophylaxis includes MMR vaccination within 72 hours of exposure or NHIG within 144 hours after exposure.11 In our study, contact tracing generally occurred too late for provision of immunoprophylaxis, primarily because of lengthy delays in diagnosis and notification of the index case — delays in obtaining flight manifests were relatively less important. This highlights the need for medical practitioners to consider a diagnosis of measles in overseas travellers who have a clinically compatible illness, and to notify such cases to public health authorities promptly, on clinical suspicion. Unless these times can be reduced significantly, immunoprophylaxis to prevent secondary cases will rarely be feasible, let alone effective, calling into question the value of committing significant human resources to performing direct contact tracing of aeroplane contacts.

Our study has some limitations. Our methods relied on all Australian jurisdictions providing data, and it is possible there were inconsistencies in the completeness and accuracy of those data. However, all jurisdictions use national guidelines for response to and documentation of measles cases.11 Moreover, it is unlikely that identified cases (either primary or secondary) would not have been notified to public health authorities, as all cases require an urgent public health response. During the study period, endemic measles transmission had been eliminated in Australia and practically all notified cases were identified as imported cases or were linked to known imported cases, indicating that very few cases are unidentified.

While it is not possible with the data available to determine whether transmission occurred in-flight, the clustering within eight rows fore and aft of index cases suggests that in-flight transmission associated with seating proximity was the likely mechanism in most instances.

The combined delays in diagnosis, notification and acquisition of flight manifests shown in this study resulted in contact tracing being ineffective for identifying susceptible people for timely immunoprophylaxis. In addition, while 17/19 passengers who were identified as secondary cases were seated within eight rows fore and aft of the index case, these 17 rows accommodate around 170 passengers on any wide-bodied jet. This number would require the use of significant human resources to perform direct contact tracing, which is unlikely to be feasible. There are also high levels of herd immunity in Australia and transmission events are relatively infrequent.23 Therefore, we recommend that public health authorities no longer routinely perform contact tracing for infectious measles cases on aeroplanes. Other strategies, such as general media alerts that identify affected flights, and direct email or SMS text messaging of passengers (if airlines can provide such contact information), may be more timely and effective. Circumstances in which contact tracing might be justified include those where diagnosis and notification have been prompt, where flight manifests are readily available, and where there are multiple infectious people, especially children, on a flight. Authorities should also continue to document cases of measles associated with air travel, in order to provide a sounder evidence base for public health guidelines.

Ensuring measles vaccination coverage remains high, promoting predeparture measles vaccination to travellers without a documented vaccination history, and raising awareness among health practitioners of the need to consider the diagnosis of measles in returning travellers and overseas visitors with clinically compatible fever and rash illnesses will decrease the risk of measles importation and secondary transmission in Australia.

1 Aeroplane seating of secondary measles cases, by rows distant (fore or aft) from index cases, Australia 2007–2011


The red square represents index cases on flights where transmission occurred; blue squares represent seating of secondary cases according to the number of rows away (fore or aft) from index cases, not actual seating position. One secondary case in a cabin crew member is not represented.

2 Selected characteristics for aeroplane flights with documented secondary transmission of measles, Australia 2007–2011

Flight

Postexposure prophylaxis*
recommended or given

Number of cases within two rows

Number of cases
outside of two rows


1

Yes

0

1

2

Yes

0

2

3

Yes

5

1

4§

No

1

2

5

No

1

0

6

No

1

2

7

No

1

3

Total

3/7 with intervention

9

11


* MMR (measles–mumps–rubella) vaccine or NHIG (normal human immunoglobulin). To susceptible contacts within two rows in front of or behind the index case; not all secondary cases received MMR or NHIG. Carried two siblings who were infectious. § Carried three siblings who were infectious.

3 Selected characteristics of aeroplane flights with and without secondary measles transmission, Australia 2007–2011

Secondary transmission (n = 7 flights)

No transmission
(n = 42 flights)

P


International flight

7 flights

29 flights

0.167*

Mean (range) age of index case in years

13.7 (3–25)

20.5 (0–46)

0.025

Mean (range) flight time in hours

8.4 (4.5–12)

5.7 (1.0–13.5)

0.091§

More than one infectious case present

2 flights

0 flights

0.018*

Prophylaxis offered to susceptible contacts

3 flights

5/37 flights

0.10*


* Fisher exact test. Includes all infectious index cases (10). Independent samples t-test. § Mann–Whitney U test. Denominator excludes five flights for which it was unknown whether prophylaxis was specifically offered.

4 Number of flights according to the length of time taken for the flight manifest to be made available to public health authorities and the type of intervention undertaken, Australia, 2007–2011

Time (days)

Number of flights

No contact tracing

Information only*

Postexposure
immunoprophylaxis

Unknown


< 3

3

0

0

2

1

3–5

12

0

3

4

5

≥ 6

34

5

26

2

1

Total

49

5

29

8

7


* Advice on the risk, signs and symptoms of measles infection and restriction advice if non-immune or symptoms develop. Measles–mumps–rubella vaccine or normal human immunoglobulin offered to identified susceptible contacts. Unknown whether information only or postexposure prophylaxis was given to contacts.

Visceral leishmaniasis in a patient taking adalimumab for rheumatoid arthritis

Opportunistic infections have been increasingly recognised with the advent of biological therapy for rheumatic disease. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been reported in Europe in association with tumour necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors. We report the first case of VL in an Australian returned traveller taking adalimumab.

Clinical record

A 69-year-old, Australian-born woman with a 14-year history of seropositive rheumatoid arthritis presented with a 3-week history of sweats and 1 week of severe malaise and postural dizziness. She had previously been treated with a variety of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and was taking methotrexate 20 mg weekly at the time of admission. She had suffered from an arthritic flare over the preceding 6 months and, as a result, was treated with adalimumab (an inhibitor of tumour necrosis factor-alpha [TNF-α] and a type of biological DMARD) 40 mg fortnightly for 8 weeks before her admission. The results of all pretreatment screening tests, including for latent tuberculosis, were negative. Her background history included atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, hypertension, pulmonary infiltrates that were presumed to be rheumatoid nodules (stable under computed tomography [CT] observation over a 3-year period). She was an ex-smoker with a 40 pack-year history. Her travel history was extensive and, in particular, she had taken a 6-week trip to France, Portugal and Spain 5 months before presentation. She recalled some arthropod bites during 2 weeks in Andalusia, Spain.

On admission, her night sweats were found to represent intermittent fevers. She was hypotensive with a systolic blood pressure of 90 mmHg, and her spleen was palpable. Laboratory findings showed a C-reactive protein (CRP) level of 33.6 mg/L (reference interval [RI], 0–3.1 mg/L), erythrocyte sedimentation rate of 33 mm/h (RI, 0–10 mm/h), haemoglobin level of 117 g/L (RI, 115–165 g/L) and albumin level of 31 g/L (RI, 33–41 g/L). The results of multiple sets of blood cultures and an HIV test were negative.

The initial differential diagnosis included an opportunistic infection, malignancy or a medication effect. Methotrexate and adalimumab were no longer given.

Her clinical status deteriorated with progressively worsening malaise and fevers. Over the subsequent 3 weeks, she developed pancytopenia with a neutrophil count of 0.7 × 109/L (RI, 1.8–7.7 × 109/L), haemoglobin level of 75 g/L and platelet count of 32 × 109/L (RI, 150–400 × 109/L). Total gammaglobulin concentration was 38.70 g/L (RI, 6.45–13.9 g/L), and her ferritin level increased to 27 401 μg/L (RI, 30–260 μg/L). The results of an initial bone marrow biopsy did not assist diagnosis, although a trephine biopsy could not be performed.

A CT image of her chest showed unchanged pulmonary nodularity, and splenomegaly that was new since her previous CT chest scan. As there was still no diagnosis after 4 weeks of investigations, fine needle aspiration of a lung nodule was attempted, without success. Due to ongoing concerns about possible malignancy (pulmonary or haematological), a positron emission tomography scan was performed. The lung nodules were not fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-avid; however, the spleen was found to be intensely hypermetabolic, as shown by increased FDG uptake (Box 1).

Thrombocytopenia precluded a splenic biopsy, and a splenectomy was performed. The results of histopathological examination showed visceral leishmaniasis (VL) with multiple intracellular amastigotes within macrophages, while a repeat bone marrow biopsy also showed protozoa (Box 2). Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of the splenic tissue was performed at St Vincent’s Hospital, Sydney, and results were positive for Leishmania infantum. A retrospective review of the initial bone marrow biopsy found a single macrophage containing amastigotes.

The patient was treated with liposomal amphotericin on Days 1–5, 10, 17, 24, 31 and 38, with a total cumulative dose of 40 mg/kg. By postoperative Day 30, her CRP level had decreased to 12.1 mg/L, her haemoglobin level had improved to 132 g/L and she had returned to her premorbid level of function. Her rheumatoid arthritis flared again 3 months later, and methotrexate therapy was recommenced. At 18 months, there has been no evidence of recurrent infection, and her rheumatoid arthritis has remained under moderate control; however, there is no current plan to recommence biological DMARD therapy.

Discussion

Kala-azar, meaning black fever in Hindi, is the visceral form of leishmaniasis. Worldwide, 500 000 cases are reported per annum, and the disease is responsible for 60 000 deaths annually. Unlike the often self-limiting cutaneous form, without treatment, VL is almost invariably fatal.1 VL is principally caused by two of the 20 Leishmania protozoa known to cause disease in humans: L. infantum (also known as L. chagasi) and L. donovani. L. infantum, the species detected in the patient described here, tends to affect immunosuppressed patients and those at the extremes of age. In contrast, L. donovani can affect patients of any age.

Leishmaniasis is endemic to Africa, South America, Southern Europe and South Asia. The vectors are primarily species of the Phlebotomus sandfly; although in South America, the Lutzomyia longipalpis sandfly is responsible. Although leishmaniasis affecting humans has never been locally acquired in Australia, there does exist a species affecting kangaroos, believed to be spread by a day-feeding midge, Forcipomyia (Lasiohelea) Kieffer. Depending on the species and environment, VL is variably a zoonosis or anthroponosis, and reservoirs include dogs, rodents and primates.1 Incubation times are derived from cases in returned travellers, including Australians. From these observations, it is clear that incubation can vary from 2 weeks to 18 months.2 Further, travel to endemic areas for periods as short as 7 days has resulted in disease.3 VL is significantly associated with HIV infection and other forms of immunosuppression.

This case brings to light a number of issues. First, the frequency of VL in association with biological DMARDs, particularly TNF-α inhibitors, optimal therapy for VL in this setting, and whether it is safe to recommence treatment with biological DMARDs after a diagnosis of VL. Second, what strategies could be considered to prevent VL in this population; and finally, whether diagnosis could have been expedited in our patient, thus avoiding splenectomy.

Leishmania are well adapted to survival and frequently cause latent infection.2 In an infection, the Leishmania promastigotes are taken up by phagocytes but also inhabit other cells, such as fibroblasts, and become amastigotes. They elicit a T-helper type 1 (Th1) response that produces interleukin-12 and recruits natural killer cells and CD8+ T cells. Production of interferon-gamma, activation of macrophages and release of TNF-α promotes killing of parasites with nitric oxide. TNF-α also assists in pro-inflammatory signalling by producing a positive feedback loop, stimulating macrophages and promoting the Th1 response.

The association of VL with DMARDs emphasises the importance of TNF-α in maintaining immune control. Although VL is well described in association with non-biological DMARDs such as methotrexate and corticosteroids,2 an increasing association with biological DMARDs has been recognised. We identified 15 reported cases of VL involving TNF-α inhibitors.2,410 With only one exception, patients were diagnosed in endemic areas of Southern Europe. The other patient was a British traveller returning from Malta.8 The underlying conditions varied but nine out of 15 were related to rheumatoid arthritis. Most were also taking other forms of immunosuppressive medications such as corticosteroids or other DMARDs. Most patients presented with the classic pentad of fever, cachexia, splenomegaly, hypergammaglobulinaemia and pancytopenia. Nevertheless, patients tended to have a protracted course between presentation and diagnosis. Diagnosis was most often made by isolating amastigotes from bone marrow; however, more than one bone marrow biopsy was frequently required for diagnosis. No other patient proceeded to splenectomy. One patient died and all others recovered. Twelve patients were treated with liposomal amphotericin, with total doses ranging from 18–50 mg/kg. Treatment with TNF-α inhibitors was recommenced in only three patients.6,910 Several patients recommenced non-biological DMARDs. There have been no reported cases of subsequent relapse of VL to date.

Pentavalent antimonials have been the mainstay of therapy for leishmaniasis, and these remain in wide use. However, difficulties with resistance, toxicity and quality control of generic forms of these medications limit their utility.1 Increasingly, the liposomal form of amphotericin is recognised as the least toxic treatment option and is currently the only agent approved by the Therapeutic Goods Administration for use in Australia. A variety of treatment protocols have been proposed, balancing cost and efficacy. Cure rates of 90% have been reported with doses as low as 12.5 mg/kg in India.11 However, with high relapse rates in the HIV-positive population, total doses of 20–60 mg/kg have been recommended. We chose a treatment protocol suitable for patients with HIV because we felt that our patient’s degree of immunosuppression more closely reflected that of this population.

There are very few patients who have recommenced biological DMARD therapy after their episode of VL, so it is difficult to make a judgement about safety in this setting. Certainly there is a substantial theoretical risk, given the difficulty of achieving cure of the parasitic infection2 and the experience of relapse in patients with HIV infection. One option may be to monitor patients with Leishmania PCR testing, which is available in Australia and has been shown to accurately detect disease both acutely and in the context of relapse, and has been used in patients with and without HIV infection.1 This can be performed on both serum and tissue.

Several recent reports have discussed pretreatment screening of patients in endemic areas for VL, as is done for tuberculosis.2,45 This could be performed with either the leishmanin skin test (not available in Australia), a type of delayed hypersensitivity test, or serological testing. Generally, it is felt that the incidence is still too infrequent to justify such an intervention. Further, it is unclear whether prophylaxis or pretreatment eradication would be efficacious. At this stage, vector avoidance is the only strategy that can be recommended to patients.

Nevertheless, there is definite potential for future changes in the epidemiology of leishmaniasis. Increasing use of TNF-α inhibitors in endemic areas such as Brazil and the Indian subcontinent may put a much larger population at risk. Further, climate change may affect the geographical distribution of vectors and reservoirs, demanding continued vector surveillance beyond currently affected regions.1,6

A diagnosis for our patient would have been expedited by a higher index of suspicion of VL. VL poses a small but significant risk to immunosuppressed patients travelling to areas endemic for leishmaniasis and should be considered as a differential diagnosis in such patients presenting with pyrexia of unknown origin.

1 Positron emission tomography image showing avid uptake of fluorodeoxyglucose in the spleen (arrow), indicating hypermetabolism

2 Bone marrow biopsy specimen stained with Giemsa stain showing an activated macrophage containing amastigotes (arrow)

Antimicrobial resistance: global problems need global solutions

Much has been written about antimicrobial resistance and the measures we must take to prevent an era in which infections become untreatable. Despite these longstanding concerns, there has been a steady rise in antimicrobial resistance globally, threatening the effectiveness of increasing numbers of antimicrobial classes against broadening species of microorganisms.

Do we continue on our current path until no effective antimicrobials are available, the pressure on microorganisms is slowly reduced, and resistance wanes over time? If so, we face a period during which many people will die with untreatable infections. Or do we act now?

In the spirit of optimism that action now can still make a difference, we publish in this issue several articles to be presented at this week’s combined Australasian Society for Infectious Diseases (ASID) and Communicable Disease Control conference, which address the breadth of antimicrobial resistance issues we currently face.

In their editorial, Looke and colleagues from the ASID Council (doi: 10.5694/mja13.10190) describe the growing threat of multiresistant gram-negative bacteria, a new “Red Plague”, engendered by the ability of resistance genes to move freely between bacterial species, across borders and, through global travel and trade, around the world. An example of a multiresistant gram-negative pathogen causing disseminated infection after a routine surgical procedure is described by Roberts and colleagues (doi: 10.5694/mja12.11719). This infection was caused by an organism thought to have been acquired innocuously during regular overseas travel. In the same vein, research by Kotsanas and colleagues (doi: 10.5694/mja12.11757) describes the difficulty in eliminating an environmental source of resistance-carrying plasmids that had been implicated in several clusters of infection in an intensive care unit.

The ways to deal with resistance are seemingly straightforward: halting unnecessary use of antimicrobials, limiting broad-spectrum antimicrobial use through stewardship programs, and enforcing basic preventive infection control measures that relate to hygiene, sterile technique and isolation of infectious carriers, as well as reducing antimicrobial use in veterinary and animal production sectors. As of January 2013, antimicrobial stewardship programs are a requirement for hospital accreditation in Australia, but do they actually work? Cairns and colleagues (doi: 10.5694/mja12.11683) describe an audit of antimicrobial use before and after an antimicrobial stewardship program in a tertiary hospital in Victoria. While immediately successful in reducing broad-spectrum antibiotic use, there was a trend towards a subsequent rebound, the venture has not yet been proven cost-effective, and long-term outcomes such as reductions in antimicrobial resistance cannot yet be shown. More work may be needed to convince all stakeholders of the importance of implementing these measures.

It may yet be the simplest preventive measures that have the greatest effect for the least cost. Coatsworth and colleagues (doi: 10.5694/mja12.11695) describe a case of probable iatrogenic prosthetic shoulder infection attributable to an intra-articular injection performed by a proceduralist not wearing a mask. Have we come to depend so much on the panacea of the antimicrobial that we have forgotten the lessons of Semmelweis, Pasteur and Lister? Prevention of infection must be as important as treatment, and this will require effort on a global scale. In the developing world, resistance is becoming endemic and our global interactions mean we cannot act in isolation and expect resistance to disappear.

Ghafur (doi: 10.5694/mja13.10099) urges us to behave like microbes and “unite or perish”. He calls for global, cross-border action and describes efforts in India to tackle the now very serious threat of gram-negative resistance by bringing together members from across the medical, political, industrial and community divide to create the Chennai Declaration.

We can all learn from this effort, but the real challenge is to institute the measures we know are needed and to show that they can work. If we do, we may one day write about the success story that is global collaboration, reduced resistance, better infection control and improved human health.

Gram-negative resistance: can we combat the coming of a new “Red Plague”?

Coordinated action is urgently needed to tackle a looming public health crisis

Everybody knows that pestilences have a way of recurring in the world; yet somehow we find it hard to believe in ones that crash down on our heads from a blue sky. There have been as many plagues as wars in history; yet always plagues and wars take people equally by surprise. Albert Camus, The plague, Part 11

Infectious diseases scourges in history have had devastating effects on unprepared human populations. Bubonic plague, or the “Black Death”, killed more than a third of Europe’s population from 1346 to 1351, and the “White Plague” (tuberculosis) became epidemic in Europe throughout the 19th century. These plagues provide many lessons from which we can learn if we are to contain the spread of gram-negative resistance — the coming of a new “Red Plague”.

In 1884, Danish bacteriologist Hans Christian Gram published a stain method for distinguishing bacteria. Gram-negative bacteria do not retain a blue dye (crystal violet) and are stained pink or red by use of a counterstain, hence the term “red”. In clinical use, “gram-negative” largely refers to the common human pathogens such as Escherichia, Klebsiella, Enterobacter, Proteus and Pseudomonas species. These organisms cause infections such as urinary tract infections, peritonitis, biliary tract infection, hospital-acquired pneumonia, and less common but more serious infections such as liver abscess and neonatal meningitis, among others.

While antimicrobial agents were initially highly successful in treating these infections, their unfettered use in both humans and animals has seen rates of antimicrobial resistance rise alarmingly, especially in the developing world. In a 2009 study, > 50% of Escherichia coli in China and > 70% in India were extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing strains, indicative of high-level resistance.2 It is now estimated that up to 100–200 million people in India may harbour gram-negative bacteria that carry the New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase (NDM-1) enzyme that renders the bacteria virtually untreatable.3 It is not known how many have experienced infections from these organisms. Poor sanitation and uncontrolled antibiotic overuse in health and agriculture are the likely culprits.

Australia and the rest of the developed world are not immune to these developments. Antibiotic-resistant gram-negative bacterial infections were once thought to be simply “hospital-acquired infections”, but people with community-acquired multiresistant gram-negative bacterial infections are now presenting to general practices and emergency departments. Comprehensive Australia-wide surveillance of resistance trends in gram-negative bacilli is lacking, however. Though rates of resistance are lower in Australia than in the United States, southern Europe and much of Asia, resistance (eg, to third-generation cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones) is rising. The Australian Group on Antimicrobial Resistance surveillance of community-acquired gram-negative isolates has shown that multiresistant E. coli isolates rose from 4.5% in 2008 to 7.2% in 2010.4 Moreover, virtually all key mechanisms of multidrug-resistance in gram-negative bacilli found worldwide have now been detected in Australia.58

Establishment of gram-negative resistance in Australia is likely to have several consequences, including the need to treat previously simple infections, such as uncomplicated urinary tract infections, with intravenous instead of oral antimicrobial therapy; the need to treat severe community-acquired sepsis with antibiotics of last resort up-front, and a growing ineffectiveness of surgical antibiotic prophylaxis. The impact of increased resistance would be seen across all age groups, leading to significant costs to the community in both human and economic terms. This shift has already become apparent in children and adults with no prior hospital exposure presenting with infections acquired during travel to countries where resistance is endemic.9 The impact on health care-associated sepsis is likely to be substantial.

Are new antibiotics waiting in the wings to save the day? Unfortunately, antibiotic development has all but stalled, and candidate antibiotics in development have limited activity against these resistant pathogens. Two basic strategies remain: enhancing traditional infection control, including hand hygiene and isolation of carriers in hospital; and antibiotic stewardship, where “selection pressure” on bacterial flora is mitigated by reduction in the volume of antibiotics used in clinical practice. Infection control and antibiotic stewardship programs are now mandated in all hospitals through accreditation, but their effectiveness in halting the spread of gram-negative resistance is unknown.

What must be done?

Without a coordinated effort at government level across all human and animal health care sectors, we are likely doomed to failure. We need to implement national surveillance to map and track the true extent and impact of these infections. We need to proactively implement the principles of stewardship across all sectors from “high-tech” hospitals to country general practices, to eliminate the many, mostly non-evidence-based, ways that antimicrobials and disinfectant products are used within the community, hospitals and industry. We need to support and fund research into new antimicrobial compounds and other innovative strategies to combat resistance. We need to think outside the square and embrace innovative trials of preventive strategies, such as vaccines; newer methods of disease treatment, such as using interventional radiology and minimalist surgical techniques instead of traditional surgery; and farm production methods developed with techniques that do not require antimicrobial agents. Most importantly, we need to appreciate the significance of this growing outbreak of gram-negative resistance in the same way that we appreciate and plan for outbreaks of infections such as avian influenza.

In 2011, the World Health Organization declared antimicrobial resistance to be the theme for World Health Day, and governments around the world have begun to face up to this threat. A major positive step has been taken by the Australian Government with the recent formation of the Antimicrobial Resistance Standing Committee, which reports to the Australian Health Protection Committee. This, for the first time, has created a dialogue that allows involved agencies and groups to tackle this challenge together.

All of us — government and public health institutions, universities, human and animal health professional groups, and the community — have to recognise gram-negative resistance as a looming public health crisis and a social challenge: a new plague. We need to be brave enough to make difficult decisions to re-regulate antibiotics. Without intervention, many of the greatest advances in the practice of medicine — such as transplantation, joint replacement surgery or critical care medicine — will be under significant threat.

We have one great advantage over the past plagues of history: we need not be caught unprepared. We have the vast armamentarium of science now working for us. Using this knowledge, we have the capacity to counter ignorant practices and galvanise public and governmental action. Past plagues teach us to take effective steps before it is too late.