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Recent increase in detection of alprazolam in Victorian heroin-related deaths

The use of benzodiazepines by opioid-dependent people is widespread.14 The 2011 Victorian Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS), a sentinel survey of people who inject drugs (PWID), reported 92% lifetime and 71% recent (in the past 6 months) use among PWID.5 PWID use benzodiazepines for a number of reasons: to enhance the intoxicating effects of heroin or other opioids, manage anxiety, or manage withdrawal symptoms.3

The contribution of benzodiazepines to heroin overdose is well established.6,7 Alprazolam is a benzodiazepine registered in Australia for short-term treatment of anxiety and panic disorder. It is not recommended as first-line treatment because of concerns about risks of dependence and its potential for misuse.4,8

Alprazolam, like other commonly misused drugs, has a rapid onset and offset of action and high potency.8 Alprazolam may also be more toxic in overdose than other benzodiazepines.9 Laboratory-based studies have found that in combination with methadone, alprazolam has significant effects on respiration.10 A review of the interaction concluded that most evidence suggests the interaction is pharmacodynamic in nature.11

Victorian IDRS reports showed recent alprazolam use increased from 8% in 200512 to 69% in 2011.5 Alprazolam is now the most commonly injected benzodiazepine,5 with a reported street price of three tablets for $10.13 Alprazolam use is associated with disproportionate levels of harm, including amnesia, violent outbursts of rage in otherwise non-violent individuals, and theft.1,1315 In Victoria, most alprazolam (81%) used by PWID in 2011 was obtained from illicit sources.5

Given the increased number of episodes of serious harm associated with alprazolam use, we aimed to examine its public health impact, to inform prescribing and to guide appropriate policy responses. We investigated trends in alprazolam prescribing and its detection in heroin-related deaths (HRDs) in Victoria. Our hypothesis was that increased mean consumption of alprazolam is likely to have significant effects on heroin users,16 a population already vulnerable to drug toxicity.

Methods

Victorian prescription estimates

Estimates of prescription numbers for all dose formulations of alprazolam dispensed in Victoria for each calendar year, 1990–2010, were calculated from national supply data, Australian Statistics on Medicines (ASM), published by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee Drug Utilisation Sub-Committee. We determined the annual proportion of Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) supply to Victoria using data from Medicare Australia and applied this proportion to the annual ASM data. The ASM data provide a more complete estimate of alprazolam supply, as they include both private non-PBS prescriptions (those that do not attract a PBS subsidy) and PBS prescription numbers.

A defined daily dose per 1000 population per day (DDD/1000/day) for Victoria was calculated for each year using the same Victorian proportions derived from the PBS figures, the DDD for alprazolam (1 mg),17 the base number of estimated alprazolam prescriptions in Victoria, the usual pack size (50 tablets) for each dose formulation and Victorian population data.

Alprazolam detection in
heroin-related deaths

Annual aggregate numbers of HRDs and annual numbers of cases of HRD in which alprazolam was detected were extracted from the Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine toxicology database. Cases reported to the Victorian coroner in the 21-year period 1990–2010 that were classified as drug-related deaths, involved heroin and had been subjected to toxicology testing were included. All cases had results for a full range of toxicology tests, including for ethanol and common drugs of misuse. All presumptive detections had been confirmed by appropriate analytical techniques. Alprazolam had been tested for, using both immunoassay class tests on urine or blood (depending on availability of specimens) and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry on blood. All detections had been confirmed and quantified in blood using validated methods.

Ethics approval was granted by the Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine Research Advisory Committee.

Statistical analysis

We used a Poisson regression model to assess the relationship between estimated trends in alprazolam supply and HRDs involving alprazolam. All statistical tests adjusted for annual fluctuations in HRDs. Data were analysed using Stata, version 11 (StataCorp).

Results

Alprazolam prescribing

Alprazolam supply increased by 1426% from 0.42 DDD/1000/day in 1990 to 6.41 DDD/1000/day in 2010 (Box 1). The estimated number of Victorian prescriptions for alprazolam increased by 611%, from 609/100 000 population in 1990 to 4327/100 000 population in 2010 (Box 1). The most remarkable change was in prescriptions for the 2 mg formulation, which increased from 4.1% to 27.9% of the population-adjusted rate for alprazolam prescriptions between 1998 and 2010. Box 2 shows trends in total DDD/1000/day for the four alprazolam dose formulations. A large proportion of alprazolam prescriptions were private; in 2009, private prescriptions accounted for 37.2% of all prescriptions.

Heroin-related deaths

There were 2392 HRDs in Victoria from 1990 to 2010. The annual number varied considerably over this time, with a large increase in HRDs per year from 1993, peaking at 362 deaths in 1999 (Box 1). A large decrease in HRDs reflected a reduction in heroin supply in 2001, and numbers subsequently fluctuated between 26 and 76 HRDs per year from 2001 to 2009, increasing to 96 in 2010 (Box 1, Box 3).

The number of alprazolam detections increased steadily from 2004, reaching a peak in 2010. Detection fluctuated between 0 and 4.4% of HRDs from 1990 to 2004, with a large increase from 5.2% in 2005 to 35.3% in 2009, decreasing to 28.1% in 2010 (Box 1, Box 3).

The Poisson regression model showed that for every 1 unit increase in DDD/1000/day, HRDs involving alprazolam increased at an incidence rate ratio of 2.4 (95% CI, 2.1–2.8; P < 0.001). Box 4 shows a log linear relationship between supply and the proportion of HRDs in which alprazolam was detected.

Discussion

Our study over the 21 years from 1990 to 2010 showed a number of interesting trends in alprazolam prescribing and supply and its relationship to HRDs in Victoria. First, the supply of alprazolam increased despite its status as a second-line treatment for its approved indications; second, the increase in the supply of the high-dose formulation was disproportionate to the increase in other formulations; and third, the rate of detection of alprazolam in HRDs increased more rapidly after 2005, concurrently with other reports of increasing harm among PWID.13 The association between the detection of alprazolam in HRDs and alprazolam supply was strong and significant. While alprazolam may be more toxic in overdose than other benzodiazepines,9 the accelerated rate of detection in this population since 2005 could reflect an increased preference for and use of alprazolam,1 particularly the high-dose formulation, among heroin users.

This raises questions about the increased prescribing of a drug not preferred for treatment of its primary indication,8,18 and for which little evidence exists for effectiveness beyond short-term use.4 This is especially important given that it may be more toxic in overdose.9 We have shown that the proportion of HRDs in which this benzodiazepine was detected increased over time as supply increased. Understanding the reasons for the increasing average population-level consumption of alprazolam may help to decrease its supply and the harmful effects seen among PWID. This would be consistent with a previous study that showed that the average consumption of potentially harmful products such as salt and alcohol predicts the number of people affected in the statistically “deviant” tail end of a population distribution.16,19

The number of HRDs has remained fewer than during the heroin glut in the late 1990s,20 which led to the peak in deaths shown in 1999. The lower numbers are likely to reflect trends in heroin supply and should not be interpreted as evidence that alprazolam is relatively safe.

A relative strength of our study is the reporting of all Victorian HRDs spanning a 21-year period, enabling the identification of long-term trends in alprazolam used shortly before death. These data provide valuable information for the future prevention of deaths among people who use heroin. In addition, the prescription data and DDD calculations are estimates of the total number of prescriptions dispensed, based on data from the ASM and Medicare. Incorporating the ASM data improves the accuracy of total prescription volume through the inclusion of private prescriptions.

The finding of a strong and statistically significant association between detection of alprazolam in cases of HRD and its supply in the community is useful for generating a hypothesis about possible causes of increasing detection of this drug in cases of HRD. However, this does not mean a causal relationship exists between the increasing alprazolam supply and such deaths. The contribution of alprazolam to deaths involving multiple drugs is difficult to determine, and it is therefore not possible to specify the proportion of cases of drug toxicity due to combined drugs where alprazolam contributed directly to death.21 We used detection of alprazolam as an indication of use by PWID, rather than contribution to death per se.

The absolute number and rate of cases of HRD in which alprazolam was detected has increased substantially since 2005. Concern about the misuse of alprazolam in 2010 led to a request to the Australian National Drugs and Poisons Schedule Committee to reschedule it to the more restrictive Schedule 8.22 Among the committee’s stated reasons for not doing so at that time was that there was insufficient evidence of a problem.

This study provides further evidence of the increasing problem, perhaps involving high-dose formulations, of use of diverted medications among PWID.1 Given the growing concerns with alprazolam use among PWID and its increasing involvement in HRDs, supply control measures — such as better monitoring and surveillance (including real-time prescription monitoring), rescheduling to Schedule 8, and education of health professionals — are warranted. Provision of information about the risks of concurrent use of opioids and alprazolam to PWID is also essential.

1 Heroin-related deaths (HRDs) and detection of alprazolam, Victoria, 1996–2010*

Parameter

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010


Total number of HRDs

147

157

265

362

331

47

51

90

84

57

26

36

76

51

96

Alprazolam detected,
no. (%)

2

(1.4%)

1

(0.6%)

3

(1.1%)

7

(1.9%)

4

(1.2%)

0

(0.0)

2

(3.9%)

4

(4.4%)

2

(2.4%)

3

(5.3%)

(11.5%)

6

(16.7%)

13

(17.1%)

18

(35.3%)

27

(28.1%)

No. of alprazolam prescriptions (’000s)

95

100

119

119

134

145

150

161

174

179

188

217

236

246

240

Alprazolam prescriptions
per 100 000 population

2087

2170

2559

2533

2828

3012

3074

3257

3488

3526

3653

4146

4431

4528

4327

Defined daily dose/1000 population/day

2.06

2.22

2.68

2.86

3.25

3.52

3.70

4.00

4.36

4.54

4.77

5.48

6.06

6.58

6.41


* 1990–1995 not shown (there were no HRDs involving alprazolam during this period). The proportion dispensed in Victoria was estimated using national Medicare data on Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme supply of all formulations and this was applied to Australian Statistics on Medicines supply data (see Methods).

2 Estimated alprazolam defined daily dose (DDD) per 1000 population per day, by dose formulation, Victoria, 1990–2010

3 Number of heroin-related deaths (HRDs) and proportion of cases in which alprazolam was detected, Victoria, 1996–2010

4 Relationship between annual proportion of heroin-related deaths (HRD) in which alprazolam was detected and the annual defined daily dose (DDD)
per 1000 population per day, Victoria, 1990–2010*

* Yearly figures are plotted and labelled with the number of alprazolam-detected HRD in that year; any years with zero alprazolam-detected HRD deaths had the number of alprazolam HRD set to
0.5 and the proportion of all HRD calculated from this. ◆

A meta-analysis of “hospital in the home”

To the Editor: Caplan et al1 include in their meta-analysis a trial by Mather et al that compared home care with intensive care management of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) between 1966 and 1968.2 A joint working party of the Royal College of Physicians and British Cardiac Society dismissed the results of this study because of design defects.3,4

Kalra et al5 performed a randomised trial with three arms for patients with acute stroke: stroke unit care, general ward care with stroke team support, and domiciliary care. Stroke units achieved a significantly lower mortality than general ward or domiciliary care. Caplan et al ignore the heterogeneity of the hospital arms, and sum their mortalities, creating a non-existent advantage for domiciliary care over hospital care. This meta-analytic technique is simplistic and invalid.

Hill et al describe home versus hospital management for patients with suspected AMI,2 as do Mather
et al.2 Studies of obsolete treatments, such as home management of patients with AMI, should have been excluded from the meta-analysis.

Rudd et al studied the effect of early discharge after stroke using a 1976 clinical definition of stroke.6 No details of imaging or comorbidities were given. The assumption of equipoise in the trial arms regarding morbidity is not met, and the study is not suitable for inclusion in the meta-analysis.

Indredavik et al7 studied the effect of early supported discharge versus ordinary care in patients with stroke, with 13 deaths at 26 weeks in the experimental group against 15 deaths in the control group. However, Caplan et al incorrectly report this as 21 and 26 deaths, respectively.

If these five most heavily weighted studies are excluded, no significant difference in mortality is seen
(243 hospital-in-the-home deaths [n = 2747] v 245 hospital deaths
[n = 2435], two-sided P = 0.14). Moreover, meta-analysis of the effect of location on mortality where the circumstances of the location are
not defined and not expected to be homogenous is invalid and makes
the mathematical exercise futile.

A meta-analysis of “hospital in the home”

In reply: Dickson argues for exclusion of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) if treatments have changed, but treatments are constantly changing so, following
this rule, meta-analysis would be impossible. Similarly, diagnosis
has changed — stroke was
a clinical diagnosis, then computed tomography was required, and
now magnetic resonance imaging
is needed. Equipoise is not a requirement for inclusion in a
meta-analysis.

Complaints about research being simplistic because it aggregates patients and groups demonstrates a misconception of research, which is designed to aggregate one factor while other factors differ — for example, study arms may have different mixtures of ages but similar average ages. The meta-analysis studied effects of two systems of care — hospital and hospital in the home (HITH) — not a particular diagnosis or treatment.1,2 Therefore it is legitimate to aggregate hospital patients and compare them with HITH patients.

Location and heterogeneity were mathematically defined, there was no heterogeneity for mortality data, and other outcomes were adjusted appropriately.

Results from the study by Indredavik et al were published in several reports, but (due to space limitations) only the primary report was cited. The data that Dickson refers to are in a report by Fjaertoft et al.3

Although the prevailing opinions
of the Royal College of Physicians
of London and the British Cardiac Society criticised the study by Mather et al in the 1970s, no contradictory facts or trials were cited at the time.4 Considering that other prevailing practices that were initially not examined by adequate RCTs led
to many iatrogenic deaths (eg, prophylactic use of antiarrhythmic drugs5), such practices should be examined and evidence of patient harm taken seriously, rather than simply dismissing evidence as obsolete.

Secondary prevention of coronary heart disease in Australia: a blueprint for reform

Authorship statement omitted: In “Secondary prevention of coronary heart disease in Australia: a blueprint for reform” in the 4 February 2013 issue of the Journal (Med J Aust 2013; 198: 70-71), a full statement of authorship was omitted. Julie Redfern and Clara Chow coauthored the editorial on behalf of the Executive Committee and all participants in the National Secondary Prevention of Coronary Disease Summit held in December 2011.

The impact of age and sex on person-level Medicare costs

To the Editor: The impact of population ageing on health care expenditure was a hot topic in the late 1990s in Australia.1 Previous studies have adopted various modelling approaches to estimate age- and sex-specific health care costs to inform population health care expenditure projections.24 Medicare funds about 3800 medical services, including consultations provided by general practitioners and specialists, medical diagnostic services (such as medical imaging and pathology), dental surgery, optometry and selected allied health services through the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS). It also funds about 2100 pharmaceutical therapies, or about 80% of all prescription medications dispensed in Australia, through the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS).

This letter reports annual Medicare costs at the person level for 10-year age and sex groups, drawing on de-identified Medicare linked data. Medicare randomly selected 10 000 men and 10 000 women from each of the following 2009 age groups, irrespective of their associated Medicare expenditure: 15–24, 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64, 65–74 and 75–84 years. Health care cost data for each of the samples were sourced from the MBS and PBS databases for the period 1 July 2005 to 31 December 2008. Costs were annualised and mean costs per person were calculated for each sample in 2007 Australian dollars.5

Medicare costs increased with each 10-year age increment, with the exception of a decrease in costs observed in the 75–84-year age group, which is likely to have resulted from the death of patients who previously had heavy health care use. Medicare costs per person peaked for both sexes in the population aged 65–74 years (women, $4518; men, $4215), where costs were 3.7 times and 5.6 times higher than equivalent costs for women and men aged 15–24 years. Medicare costs per capita were consistently higher for women. The differential was most pronounced for the younger age groups, particularly the 25–34-year and 35–44-year age groups where costs for women were more than double the equivalent costs for men (Box).

Observed health care cost data for demographic groups can be used to inform future Australian health care expenditure projections.

Mean annual Medicare costs per person by age and sex*

* Costs in 2007 Australian dollars.