To change practice, we should move beyond trial-based efficacy to real-world effectiveness
Meaningful health care reform requires robust evidence about which interventions work best for whom and under what circumstances. The Institute of Medicine in the United States has estimated that less than 50% of current treatments are supported by evidence and 30% of health care expenditure reflects care that is of uncertain value.1 In studies testing established clinical standards of care, more than half reported evidence that contradicts standard care or is inconclusive.2 Many Medicare Benefits Schedule services lack comprehensive evidence of comparative safety or effectiveness, while many that have been evaluated have been shown to be ineffective, harmful or of uncertain value compared with alternative forms of care.3
Comparative effectiveness research (CER) compares new
or existing interventions (or a new dose or intensity of an intervention) to one or more non-placebo alternatives, which may include “usual care”. It can be used to evaluate
a broad spectrum of clinical interventions, including diagnostic tests or strategies, screening programs, surgical procedures, pharmaceuticals, prostheses and medical devices, quality and safety improvement interventions, behavioural change and prevention strategies, and care delivery systems. While CER is not a new process — many past trials have compared different interventions — it represents a new focus and consolidation of approaches
in clinical and health services research.
In 2009, the US Congress authorised $1.1 billion for CER and, in 2010, the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute was established to identify CER priorities and develop appropriate methodologies. In the United Kingdom, the National Institute for Health Research (which was established in 2006) commissions and disseminates CER that informs clinical decision making, overseen by
the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. However, in Australia, there is no comparable group or agency with CER as the prime focus of activity.
For CER to realise its full potential, the research community must accommodate four prerequisites in
the following order.
Research has often lacked meaningful engagement of health care providers and patients in the choice of research questions and design and implementation of the research effort. Researchers and consumers of research must collaboratively identify important unanswered questions among current systematic reviews and clinical guidelines.4 Questions should be selected for CER on the basis of: the perceived needs of key stakeholders (clinicians, patients and health care managers); factors related to potential impact (eg, disease burden, cost of care and variation in outcomes); paucity of effectiveness data among specific populations; and emerging concerns about undisclosed harm.4 In the US, the Agency for Healthcare Research
and Quality has developed iterative and transparent methods for defining and prioritising future research
needs that involve a wide spectrum of stakeholders
(http://www.effectivehealthcare.ahrq.gov). Quantitative modelling methods which calculate the potential value of information in filling existing gaps in knowledge can also assist in prioritisation.5 The Institute of Medicine has issued an initial list of 100 national CER priorities derived by consensus, which includes patient-level and health system-level interventions.6
To be useful, CER must use the best possible data sources and methods to provide credible, timely and relevant evidence. The analytic scope of CER includes reanalysing existing data from available studies (in the form of systematic reviews, meta-analyses or decision analyses)
or, if these fail to provide answers, generating additional data from new studies.
The aim of CER is to determine intervention benefit among unselected patients in real-world practice settings (ie, measure effectiveness), as opposed to doing so among highly selected patients in tightly controlled experiments (ie, measure efficacy). The design and conduct of CER studies must reflect this aim (Box).7
CER encounters the vexed question regarding the relative clinical utility of observational studies versus experimental trials. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have high internal validity, but narrow patient selection criteria limit their generalisability. Observational studies use data on care delivered routinely to unselected populations in various settings, but their results are
more vulnerable to confounding and bias owing to the absence of randomisation. The way forward for CER is
to encourage more large-scale, real-world RCTs (pragmatic trials) and more rigorous observational
studies (see Appendix).
In RCTs, the inclusion of as-treated and per-protocol analyses (in addition to intention-to-treat analyses) can help expose patient-specific differences in intervention uptake and response. More head-to-head RCTs that fairly compare appropriately administered alternative interventions are needed. Network (or mixed-treatment) meta-analysis enables direct and indirect comparisons of different treatments to be combined into one synthesis, which enables greater use of all available RCT evidence than traditional meta-analysis.
In observational studies, several design features improve rigour: prospective and standardised data collection, blinded outcome assessors, prespecified matching or stratification of patient groups, and analytic techniques that minimise confounding, such as risk-adjusted regression modelling and interrupted time series analysis. Multiple high-quality studies related to a single question which consistently show large intervention effects that persist after discounting all important sources of bias confer a high level of credibility. High-quality observational studies may fill evidence gaps more proficiently than RCTs in situations where:
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technologies are rapidly evolving (ie, there are moving targets)
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technologies cannot easily be randomised
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no head-to-head trials exist
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RCTs exclude certain types of patients or conditions
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information is being sought about modification of treatment effects due to
The choice of study design will depend on the context in which CER results will be applied, the necessary level of rigour according to the consequences of incorrect inferences from the sample studied (eg, potential harm or waste from introducing mass screening program versus small-scale niche therapy on the basis of invalid analyses), the feasibility and costs of different study designs, and the urgency of the need for evidence. The overarching goal is to describe methods that, if consistently applied, provide decisionmakers with a reasonable level of confidence that one intervention is more effective than or equally effective as another.
To fill evidence gaps quickly and definitively, CER will require substantially increased investment in current research infrastructure, both human and technical. This includes expanding existing and adding new research teams, developing new research methods and establishing collaborative research partnerships across multiple sites.
It also requires data linkage at the patient level (involving administrative databases and clinical registries for public and private patients), which enables more patients to be studied and facilitates better quality and diversity of studies. Such data linkage will require establishment of data standards and common vocabularies, unique patient identifiers, data quality control and privacy protection systems, and informatics grids which connect practice-based research networks.
Of even greater importance is tackling the current bottlenecks in clinical research: ethics approvals,
contract negotiations and incentives for organisations
to participate. Truly harmonised and rapidly responsive
ethics approval procedures across multiple jurisdictions, standardised contract language, and logistical and financial support for institutions to collect and share data are required.
In attracting researchers, CER also requires a dedicated funding stream for investigator-led CER, as is the case
with basic biomedical science research and RCTs that predominantly or solely measure efficacy.8 In 2011, the National Health and Medical Research Council spent less than 5% of its $800 million budget on CER, compared with 47% on biomedical research.9
Generating or revising clinical guidelines using CER results will, by itself, have minimal impact in changing clinical practice quickly. Implementation drivers that have greater impact include: redesign of care processes, professional roles and systems of care; financial incentives that reward better practice; performance reporting and feedback; health information technology and clinical decision support; mandates for shared decision making with patients; and better training of clinicians in CER and its application.10 The interdisciplinary field of implementation science, used to study successful diffusion of innovation, will become an important tool,11 aided by CER trials designed to simultaneously evaluate intervention effectiveness and optimal methods of implementation.12
The biggest implementation challenge is reconciling clinicians to important shifts in who delivers what care, and to whom, under different circumstances. The Medicare Benefits Schedule and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme will need to move towards greater investment in efficiently priced interventions that CER shows to be effective and disinvestment in interventions that are not. These reforms will require strong political endorsement, independent researchers, early and ongoing engagement with stakeholders around reimbursement decisions, and demonstrable commitment to evidence-informed best practice. However, CER should not be perceived as a means to substantially reduce overall health care spending. In the US, estimated cost savings from CER are less than 0.1% of total expenditure.13 Instead, the aim is to facilitate better return on investment. In fact, CER may lead to recommendations to adopt new interventions.
clinical practice
In a recent review of 231 CER studies (37% on drugs, 29% on behavioural interventions and 16% on procedures), only 35% favoured the new intervention; in contrast, 79% of 804 non-CER studies favoured the new intervention.14 More than 70% of the CER studies relied on non-commercial funding, but less than a quarter evaluated safety and cost.14
CER is informing health care policy and changing clinical practice in Australia and overseas. Australian researchers have reported sentinel CER trials comparing saline infusions with albumin infusions in intensive care15 and early dialysis with late dialysis in end-stage renal failure.16 In Norway, an entire colorectal cancer screening program has been set up as a series of adaptive randomised trials testing different screening tests and procedures.17
CER has the potential to reform health care and transform health care research. The research community needs to accommodate a greater emphasis on CER and address challenges regarding optimal methods for selecting stakeholders, prioritising research questions, selecting study designs that best answer the clinical question posed, determining funding and governance arrangements, and implementing CER findings into practice and policy making.
Elements of clinical and health services research that distinguish efficacy and effectiveness studies*